617
FXUS65 KPUB 011735
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, INTO THE
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAINED ELEVATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW RETURNS AS WELL, WITH A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLING EXPECTED BY EARLY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ENERGY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
TODAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WARMS INTO THE 70S. AS
THE EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES ARE A
BIT HIGHER TODAY, WITH 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HIGH
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SBCAPE RISING TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH
LONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
CONVECTION SHOULD STRENGTHEN, WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING, TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS, CLEARING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ONCE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE PLAINS,
EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OUT OF
ARIZONA, PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PEAKS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW BY MORNING. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
MONDAY - SATURDAY: FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A
MESSY PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH INFLUENCES
FROM TROUGHING, CUT-OFF LOWS, AND OTHER MINOR WAVES/RIPPLES WITHIN
THE FLOW. DESPITE THE MESSY PATTERN THOUGH, FORCING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FORCING, COUPLED WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE, IS WHAT WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ALSO, GIVEN THE BROADER OVERALL SUPPORT, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THAT, A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR, STORMS IN THIS
LOCALIZED AREA ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE CLUSTERY AND PULSEY IN
NATURE, THOUGH WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG, DCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG,
AND HIGH BASES, STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 60-65 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BEYOND ALL OF THAT,
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS, WITH BREEZY WINDS PERSISTING GIVEN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN IN PLACE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY, WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THEN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. FINALLY, FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START REBOUNDING BACK TO WARMER VALUES,
WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AT KCOS AND KPUB, LEFT PROB30 IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION, AS STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS OF 18Z, AND MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 KTS, WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN/SMALL HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS SE
AFTER 02Z-03Z, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
INTO MON MORNING.
AT KALS, ADDED BACK IN A PROB30 FOR -TSRA FOR 20Z-24Z, AS RADAR
SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN HALF OF
THE VALLEY AT 18Z, AND MOST CAMS SUGGEST AT LEAST SCATTERED HIGH
BASED STORMS MOVING EASTWARD AT/NEAR THE TERMINAL FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 30 KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE. STORMS CLEAR QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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