941
FXUS65 KPUB 012035
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
235 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS
AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH ONE OR TWO STRONG/LOW END SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- INCREASED STORM COVERAGE MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.
- MUCH COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WETTEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR AT MID-AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY, AS RECYCLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BOOSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS, CONTRIBUTING
TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY (CAPE 1K-2K J/KG) OVER THE
REGION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM INTENSITY TODAY CONTINUES
TO BE WEAK WIND SHEAR, WITH 0-6KM VALUES ONLY IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE, AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REFLECTED THIS,
WITH UPDRAFTS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR MORE THAN
10-15 MINUTES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, EXPECT HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION TO MOVE E-SE THROUGH THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND ONTO THE PLAINS, BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. ONE OR TWO PULSE STRONG/BRIEF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG I-25, AND
WILL MONITOR FOR ANY ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY/SEVERE WINDS ON THE PLAINS.
ON MONDAY, OLD SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT
EASTWARD, REACHING SRN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AS DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION INCREASES. STILL
THINK DOWNSLOPE ALONG I-25 AND OVER THE PLAINS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SOMEWHAT, THOUGH SCATTERED,
WINDY, HIGH BASED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE. SOME RISK OF A
SEVERE STORM IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE KS BORDER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE,
THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY INTO KS BY EARLY EVENING. BETTER MIXING WILL BOOST MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS, AND EXPECT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
WITH MAXES IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS CO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS UPSLOPE AND DYNAMIC LIFT
WRING OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. QPF VALUES HAVE COME UP IN THE
PAST 24 HRS, WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES. ONCE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP FADES AWAY BY MIDDAY TUE, SUSPECT WE'LL BE TOO
COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. STILL SUSPECT NBM GUIDANCE IS TOO WET
FOR THE TUE/TUE NIGHT PERIOD, AND WHILE WE'VE BACKED OFF POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT ALREADY, EXPECT MORE REDUCTIONS IN POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
FOR WED/THU, NEXT UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON WED,
THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ON THU. AS A RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON WED/WED NIGHT, THEN STORM CHANCES THU HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON SPEED OF EJECTING WAVE, WITH MODEL SOLUTION
ENVELOPE STILL RATHER WIDE AT THIS POINT. WILL RUN WITH BLENDED
MODEL POPS FOR NOW, WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND EXPECTED AS
WELL. WARMER AND DRIER FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH W-NW
UPPER FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AT KCOS AND KPUB, LEFT PROB30 IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION, AS STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS OF 18Z, AND MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MUCH
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 KTS, WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN/SMALL HAIL UNDER ANY STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS SE
AFTER 02Z-03Z, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
INTO MON MORNING.
AT KALS, ADDED BACK IN A PROB30 FOR -TSRA FOR 20Z-24Z, AS RADAR
SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN HALF OF
THE VALLEY AT 18Z, AND MOST CAMS SUGGEST AT LEAST SCATTERED HIGH
BASED STORMS MOVING EASTWARD AT/NEAR THE TERMINAL FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 30 KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE. STORMS CLEAR QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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