679
FXUS65 KPUB 020507
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1107 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS
AGAIN THIS EVENING, WITH ONE OR TWO STRONG/LOW END SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- INCREASED STORM COVERAGE MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES.
- MUCH COOLER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WETTEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
QUICK UPDATE MADE TO TAIL DOWN POPS AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED
EAST AND DIMINISHED. WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT, BUT OVERALL TREND
WILL BE CLEARING SKIES. -KT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR AT MID-AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY, AS RECYCLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BOOSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS, CONTRIBUTING
TO SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY (CAPE 1K-2K J/KG) OVER THE
REGION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM INTENSITY TODAY CONTINUES
TO BE WEAK WIND SHEAR, WITH 0-6KM VALUES ONLY IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE, AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REFLECTED THIS,
WITH UPDRAFTS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR MORE THAN
10-15 MINUTES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, EXPECT HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION TO MOVE E-SE THROUGH THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND ONTO THE PLAINS, BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. ONE OR TWO PULSE STRONG/BRIEF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG I-25, AND
WILL MONITOR FOR ANY ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY/SEVERE WINDS ON THE PLAINS.
ON MONDAY, OLD SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT
EASTWARD, REACHING SRN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AS DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION INCREASES. STILL
THINK DOWNSLOPE ALONG I-25 AND OVER THE PLAINS WILL TEND TO
DECREASE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SOMEWHAT, THOUGH SCATTERED,
WINDY, HIGH BASED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE. SOME RISK OF A
SEVERE STORM IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE KS BORDER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE,
THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY INTO KS BY EARLY EVENING. BETTER MIXING WILL BOOST MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS, AND EXPECT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
WITH MAXES IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS CO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS UPSLOPE AND DYNAMIC LIFT
WRING OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. QPF VALUES HAVE COME UP IN THE
PAST 24 HRS, WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES. ONCE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP FADES AWAY BY MIDDAY TUE, SUSPECT WE'LL BE TOO
COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THOUGH A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. STILL SUSPECT NBM GUIDANCE IS TOO WET
FOR THE TUE/TUE NIGHT PERIOD, AND WHILE WE'VE BACKED OFF POPS
AND QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT ALREADY, EXPECT MORE REDUCTIONS IN POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
FOR WED/THU, NEXT UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON WED,
THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ON THU. AS A RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ON WED/WED NIGHT, THEN STORM CHANCES THU HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON SPEED OF EJECTING WAVE, WITH MODEL SOLUTION
ENVELOPE STILL RATHER WIDE AT THIS POINT. WILL RUN WITH BLENDED
MODEL POPS FOR NOW, WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND EXPECTED AS
WELL. WARMER AND DRIER FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH W-NW
UPPER FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON AND
SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED
AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES COME IN
DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT, REINFORCED BY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS BRINGS A NORTHERLY SURGE THROUGH KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
KALS WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. OVERALL, CIGS AND VIS SHOULD STAY VFR.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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