034
FXUS65 KPUB 021721
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT, FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR THE REGION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA, WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SPREADING INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS,
AND LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD START TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE PLAINS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD,
WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MID 50S OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK,
WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
TODAY...INTERESTING SETUP FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS
OF CONCERN; SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER ALONG A POTENTIAL DRYLINE.
FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE PUSHES BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AIR WILL BE A BIT DRIER, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50, AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP EARLIER OVER THE EASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES, THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
BEFORE THE CELLS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. CAPE WOULD BE HIGH, NEAR
2000 J/KG, AND SHEAR MARGINAL, BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL
PRODUCTION. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO,
THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. BUT, IF THE STORMS ARE A BIT LATER IN FORMING, THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST. CAM GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST
PART DEVELOPS CONVECTION LATE, WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS ABOUT 30%
ACROSS KIOWA, PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES.
OUT WEST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY, AND
SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS, NEAR 500-700 J/KG ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE MUCH
WEAKER, WITH 0-6KM VALUES AROUND 20 KTS. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD PRODUCE HAIL INCH HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY 80S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND
LIFT OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT WRAPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD,
WITH MAINLY LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 40S ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
TUESDAY - SUNDAY: WELL A VERY RINSE AND REPEAT LONG TERM PERIOD IS
EXPECTED, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A MESSY PATTERN IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE, WITH THE FIRST FEW DAYS BEING INFLUENCED
BY TROUGHING AND WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOWS, AND THEN THE REST OF THE
PERIOD BEING INFLUENCED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED
WAVES/RIPPLES. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED FLOW, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF INCREASED FORCING TO THE REGION. THIS
FORCING, ALONG WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE FORCING WILL
BE GREATEST. ALONG WITH THAT, GIVEN THE BROADER SUPPORT IN PLACE,
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. BEYOND ALL OF
THAT, BREEZY WINDS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BECOME MORE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AS THE TROUGHING AND CUT-OFF LOWS EXIT THE AREA, WITH
INCREASED PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATE MONDAY. THEN FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY WARM, WITH NEAR SEASONAL VALUES RETURNING BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
FOR KCOS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 21Z OR SO, BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CHANCES FOR STORMS TO
MOVE ON STATION ARE STILL AROUND 30% AT THIS TIME, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04Z AND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH ITS ARRIVAL, WHICH MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOULD BE AROUND 04Z OR
SO LATE THIS EVENING. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN, MIST, AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER STATION MOVING IN AFTER 20Z. A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND 05Z, BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WELL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR KALS..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVER OUR MOUNTAINS JUST WEST OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY LIGHTNING ON STATION FOR KALS
ANYTIME AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH RAIN AND POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS
LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR
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