845
FXUS65 KPUB 022004
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
204 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
CURRENTLY..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR AS OF 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY WILL BETTER DEPICT WHAT COULD BE REALIZED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR STORMS WEST OF THE DRYLINE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,
STORMS SEEM TO BE PULSE-Y AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF
SHEAR OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO NOTE
THOUGH IS THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE OVERPERFORMED TODAY BY A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME AREAS, WHICH WILL MEAN MORE AVAILABLE CAPE
TO REALIZE IN THE COMING HOURS. SPRINGFIELD HIT A 60F DEWPOINT AS OF
2PM THIS AFTERNOON, AND COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT WAS UP TO 55F LAST
HOUR.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
SPC HAS UPGRADED AREAS TO THE EAST OF OUR BORDER WITH KANSAS TO AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WITH MUCH OF OUR
EASTERN PLAINS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AND OUR MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS
IN THE MARGINAL RISK. HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL BE SITTING RIGHT ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER, HOWEVER,
DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE HAVE GOTTEN MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST
TODAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD STILL SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY, THOUGH SHEAR IS LACKING. OUTFLOW
ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO OVERPERFORMANCE LATER TODAY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASED CAPE THAT WE ARE EXPECTED
TO REALIZE NOW THAT MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
OVERPERFORMED TODAY. ON OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS THOUGH, DRYLINE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
INCREASING THE CLOSER TO THE KANSAS BORDER YOU GET. THIS FORECAST
CHECKS WITH MESOANALYSIS THIS HOUR, AS SHEAR IS LACKING NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR ARE MAXIMIZED OUT EAST LATER.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS 25-30KT OF SHEAR AND 2500-3000 J/KG OF CAPE ON
OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES, DAMAGING WINDS TO
60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH
TODAY'S CONVECTION. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ON OUR
FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FROM 4PM THROUGH 7 PM, WITH SEVERE
CHANCES LIKELY PUSHING EAST INTO KANSAS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
MOST CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SUB-SEVERE AFTER SUNSET, PENDING ANY
OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 10PM AND MIDNIGHT, PUSHING ACROSS OUR
PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING STRONG
NORTH WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND IT ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL,
WITH THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION LINGERING OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS
INTO TOMORROW.
TOMORROW..
A COOL AND CLOUDY POST-FRONTAL DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF OUR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, WHERE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, THOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE I-25
CORRIDOR. OUR POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE'VE
BEEN, AND AROUND 15 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS WELL. HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS, WITH 70S OVER OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW, THOUGH WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY LINGERING ON THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER OPEN LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS
BRING IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY, SPREADING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. WE REMAIN IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA THAT DAY AS WELL. CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR PLAINS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS OUR PLAINS
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WE WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS OUR
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS STILL LOOK TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR OUR
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.
FRIDAY ONWARDS..
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON FRIDAY, TRANSITIONING TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW TREKS ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO SEND SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR
REGION, KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY EVERY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAILY MAXIMUMS REACHING INTO
THE 80S ON THE PLAINS AND 70S OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AT THIS STAGE, WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90S ON OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH EVERY DAY WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR STORMS, MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THAT SATURDAY
WILL BE THE LEAST COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
FOR KCOS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 21Z OR SO, BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CHANCES FOR STORMS TO
MOVE ON STATION ARE STILL AROUND 30% AT THIS TIME, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04Z AND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH ITS ARRIVAL, WHICH MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOULD BE AROUND 04Z OR
SO LATE THIS EVENING. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN, MIST, AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER STATION MOVING IN AFTER 20Z. A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND 05Z, BRINGING WITH IT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WELL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR KALS..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING IN FROM
THE SOUTH OVER OUR MOUNTAINS JUST WEST OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY LIGHTNING ON STATION FOR KALS
ANYTIME AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, WITH RAIN AND POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS
LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR
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