792
FXUS65 KPUB 030909
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
309 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND UNSETTLED TODAY, AS RAIN SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE AREA.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING UPPER
LOW PIVOTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
WIDESPREAD ECHOES ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH ECHOES STARTING
TO FILL IN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING, WITH MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH A FEW POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH RAIN ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT THIS MORNING, WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY UPSLOPE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY, WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. HIGHS FURTHER WEST LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, TO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE HIGH MTN
VALLEYS. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MODEST AVAILABLE CAPE TO WORK WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY, WHERE THE LATEST HREF DATA
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AS SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE TRANSLATES EAST,
LEADING TO PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: PART OF THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BRINGS MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, HOWEVER, BOTH
DAYS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A CUT-OFF LOW
TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
WITH A MORE SUBTLE WAVE/DISTURBANCE PUSHING OVER THURSDAY IN MORE
GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BOTH DAYS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
INCREASED FORCING, ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN FORCING.
ALONG WITH THAT, MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH DAYS, THOUGH
WITH A SURGE IN MOISTURE THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY COMPONENT, ALLOWING FOR BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THE UPTICKS IN FORCING,
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM EACH DAY, INITIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AND AS ALLUDED TO, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND INCREASING SHEAR, WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
BETWEEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY WHEN MOISTURE AND SHEAR
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DAY, PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY. BEYOND
ALL OF THAT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY EACH DAY WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOONS, WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY BE BELOW SEASONAL VALUES FOR EARLY JUNE, WITH A
SLIGHT WARM UP THURSDAY THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
SEASONAL VALUES.
FRIDAY - MONDAY: FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE SAME
RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, WITH DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. FLOW WILL START TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY,
THOUGH MESSY WITH EMBEDDED WAVES/RIPPLES PUSHING OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE MESSY FLOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED
FORCING. THIS FORCING, ALONG WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY LESS, IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BLOOM EACH AFTERNOON, AGAIN INITIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, AND THEN
PUSHING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THAT, GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY MAJOR SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES, WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AGAIN, WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EACH AFTERNOON GIVEN SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, A SLOW AND STEADY WARM UP IS EXPECTED, WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
DROPPING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT COS AND PUB. NORTH WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 30 KTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD LESSEN
OVERNIGHT AS THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST. RAIN ENDS
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS BY 12Z-15Z, AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA IN THE VCNTY OF COS AND PUB IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA AT ALS, WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
WHILE KALS SEES IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z, COS AND PUB WILL
LIKELY SEE CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CATEGORY
DURING THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT COS WHERE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG REMAINS
AT COS, BUT WILL CONTINUED TO MONITORED AND POSSIBLY ADDED IN
FUTURE UPDATES.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW
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