210
FXUS65 KPUB 032016
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
216 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOTS OF CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG LIKELY IN N EL PASO COUNTY
- GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW; SOME POSSIBLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
CONTINUATION OF A WET PATTERN AS THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST
AIRMASS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING, AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP SHEAR TO INCREASE, AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EXTENDING EAST OVER THE RATON MESA REGION.
WITH THE UPSLOPE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, EXPECT LOTS OF
CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.
SOME OF THE RAIN TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY, AND GIVEN THE RAIN
OVER THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME
A CONCERN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TOMORROW. HPC HAS THE FCST AREA
OUTLOOK FOR MARGINAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
A BROAD OPEN WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MID
TO LATE-WEEK PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF OUR ACTIVE
PATTERN. THURSDAY WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF 50S DEWPOINTS ONTO THE
PLAINS, ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS, LEADING TO A
PARTICULARLY HIGH-POTENTIAL DAY. THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FROM STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS INTO THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS
INTERFACE, ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE PASSING WAVE,
AND THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE ODDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, TYPICAL SPREAD FOR CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS HAS BETWEEN ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY
THE LEAST SUPPORTIVE WITH CAPE, THOUGH THE NAM AND EC ARE MUCH
MORE ROBUST, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE LIMITED EARLY IN THE DAY, BASED ON
HOW LONG CONVECTION LASTS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
MODELS LEAVING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG I-25 UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.
HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING
EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE PUSHING THINGS
EAST OVER THE PLAINS. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE FROM
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF
TORNADOES AS WELL. WITH SHEAR AND CAPE BOTH MAXIMIZED OVER OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH 60S-70S ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS.
FRIDAY ONWARDS:
A FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AS THE OPEN SYNOPTIC WAVE SLOWLY TRANSLATES THROUGH
OUR AREA. SEVERAL WEAK, DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL, LEADING TO DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT LONG-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS DAILY STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, SUPPORTED THROUGH SOME MODEST FORCING AND ENHANCED
DAYTIME HEATING, BEFORE PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH ONTO THE PLAINS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
DECREASING OUR AVAILABLE SHEAR, THOUGH A FEW STRONGER TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
THE MOISTURE PROFILE DEVELOPS, THOUGH AS OF NOW MOISTURE LOOKS
TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS.
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, THOUGH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2025
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE LOWER CIGS AT KCOS AND KPUB.
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL GO UPSLOPE AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. BELIEVE ONCE WINDS GO AROUND TO SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
LOWER CLOUDS (IFR) WILL DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SHOWERS AT KCOS AND KPUB AT TIMES, BUT MAIN CONCERN IS LOWER CIGS
FROM AFTER 03 UTC UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR KALS. SOME AFTERNOON THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH
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