262
FXUS65 KPUB 041158
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
556 AM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS
INDICATING MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IS KEEPING COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND THE
WEAKENING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
(PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 125 AND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION) MODEL DATA SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE BEST SHEAR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER SUPPORTING CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HWY 50 CORRIDOR, WHERE HREF AND HIGHER
RES DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE HELICITY SWATHS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE,
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH WPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATING SOILS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, COOL AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS, KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. STORMS
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LEADING TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
THURSDAY LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
DAY ALONG I-25 AND ACROSS THE PLAINS, AS UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES, BRINGING INCREASED MID-LEVEL WINDS AND
ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION TO THE REGION. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF
MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG, GENERALLY HIGHEST EAST OF I-25, WHILE
0-6KM SHEAR CLIMBS INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE. MOST CAMS INITIATE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS THEN
MERGING INTO SOME SORT OF MCS AS THEY ROLL ACROSS THE SERN
PLAINS INTO KS THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NEW SWODY2 LOOKS
REASONABLE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE PLAINS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A TAD/LHX/LAA LINE, WHILE MARGINAL COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. VERY SIMILAR SET-UP
FOR FRI, WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD KS/OK. ONE
POSSIBLE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STORMS FRI WILL BE IMPACT OF ANY
OUTFLOWS FROM THU NIGHT MCS ON SURFACE INSTABILITY, AS LINGERING
SURFACE COLD POOL COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
OVER THE WEEKEND, DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH SLOW
BUILD IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LACK OF MUCH OF A SHORT WAVE
TRIGGER, MOST MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DOWNTURN IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH A
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
LATE DAY STORMS AT MANY LOCATIONS. SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER SAT
FAR SERN PLAINS WHERE CAPE OF OVER 500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR
OVER 30 KTS IS PRESENT, THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS (CLOUD
COVER/OUTFLOW FROM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT PLAINS MCS, LEE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE POSITION) WILL LIKELY PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN STORM
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. ON SUN, HINTS OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
A RETURN OF SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS ALL SUGGEST
INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. FOR MON/TUE, WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEST
MODEL/ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVES, MAIN MESSAGE IS A CONTINUATION OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY, MOVING E-SE ACROSS THE
PLAINS EACH EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SPOTS ON THE
PLAINS CREEPING BACK TOWARD THE 90F MARK BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2025
AT KCOS, IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING,
BEFORE SHOWERS REDEVELOP STARTING AROUND 19Z. KEPT A PROB30 MENTION
OF -TRSA 22Z-02Z FOR NOW, AS CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THINGS TOO STABLE,
WITH ANY PRECIP MOSTLY -SHRA. VCSH THIS EVENING, THEN IFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOP AFTER 07Z, WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN/FOG INTO THU
MORNING.
AT KPUB, OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS UNTIL MID-MORNING, THEN VFR WITH
VCSH RETURNING AFTER 19Z. PROB30 FOR -TSRA FROM 21Z-02Z, AS STORMS
MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. VCSH THIS
EVENING, THEN IFR CIGS AFTER 07Z WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN/FOG INTO THU MORNING.
AT KALS, VFR WITH VCSH AFTER 18Z, THEN PROB30 FOR -TSRA FROM 22Z-
02Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER STORMS. VCSH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
INTO THU MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WANKOWSKI/WFO PUEBLO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN/WFO PUEBLO
AVIATION...PETERSEN/WFO RIVERTON
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