501
FXUS65 KPUB 050541
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1140 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS;
ALL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ADJACENT S MTNS.
- FOG EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TONIGHT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WERE
PUSHING EAST. THESE STORMS ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES IN THE MODEST W-SW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE
REGION IS SEEING A BIT MORE SUN THEN THE LAST FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS ARE STILL SOCKED IN OVER PARTS OF EL PASO COUNTY WITH THE
CONTINUING SSE MOIST SFC FLOW.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE WAS INDICATING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WAS STARTING TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH MIXED
CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 JOULES AND 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE GREATER SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THIS AREA
UNDER MARGINAL RISK. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE 21-22 UTC TIME
FRAME. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FROM A
HYDRO PERSPECTIVE, GIVEN THE RAIN THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING, HPC HAS
THE REGION IN MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER OVER THE MTNS, ESPECIALLY
CONTDVD REGION INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING.
WITH CONTINUING S-SE SFC FLOW OVER THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION, LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ON
TOP OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER THE PLAINS, CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR BUT SHOULD DECREASE WEST TO EAST (EXCEPT OVER EL PASO COUNTY)
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
TOMORROW...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS DAY WILL BE SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS. SPC HAS
AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT WITH A 5% TOR RISK AND HATCHED HAIL OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. HREF SHOWS SEVERAL HELICITY TRACKS OVER
THIS REGION, WITH THE ACTIVITY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER THE GREATER RATON MESA
REGION THERE ARE SOME TRACK FARTHER NORTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION.
HYDRO-WISE, HPC CONTINUES TO HAVE FCST AREA IN MARGINAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPS AROUND 80F OVER THE PLAINS, AROUND 70 LARGER VALLEYS AND 40S
AND 50S MTNS. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
OVERALL, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DRY OUT ALL THAT
MUCH, SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM THE DESI
GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY OVER THE
REGION. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THE
PLAINS FRIDAY RISING INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PUSHES DOWN IN THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
KCOS: MENTIONED VCSH THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBY
THROUGH 09Z, THEN POTENTIAL FOR LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO DZ, CIGS
AND LOW VSBY UNTIL 15Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM 15Z-19Z, THEN
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR
CONDITIONS.
KPUB: VFR UNTIL 08Z, BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH SO MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH 10Z, THEN POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO DZ, CIGS AND LOW VSBY UNTIL 15Z.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM 15Z-19Z, THEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 21Z. VCSH REDEVELOPS BY 21Z
WITH S-SW SURFACE WINDS INCREASING, AND ADDED PROB30 FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 22Z-02Z WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS. VFR BY 03Z TOMORROW
NIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH/WFO PUEBLO
LONG TERM...HODANISH/WFO PUEBLO
AVIATION...MOORE
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