453
FXUS65 KPUB 070011
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
611 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- WARMER SATURDAY, WITH A DECREASE IN STORM CHANCES, AND ONLY
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POP GRIDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PLAINS, CLEARING THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH ACTIVITY IN A LINE FROM
NEAR ARLINGTON, SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THATCHER. THERE IS ALSO FEW
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS A STRONG, CYCLIC SUPERCELL OVER SOUTHEAST PUEBLO
INTO SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY, AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. VERY LARGE
HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES CAN ALL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. AREAS OVER EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY, INCLUDING THE TOWN OF KIM SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AS THIS
STORM TRACKS SOUTHEAST.
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLS TO SPIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THEY DEVELOP. THE ACTIVITY OVER BENT,
PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. IF YOU ARE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR AND KIOWA COUNTY, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. MOZLEY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LATEST THINKING WITH A FAVORABLE EVENING
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS CAPABLE OF
ALL HAZARD TYPES FROM VERY LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. HREF MEAN CAPE VALUES ARE SITTING AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG, WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR OFF SPC MESOANALYSIS
VALUES. IF DEW POINTS CAN MAINTAIN IN THE LOW 50S ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AROUND PEAK HEATING WE COULD EASILY YIELD SOME HIGHER
CAPE VALUES PER NAM SOUNDINGS. UP TO 2000+ J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60 DEW
POINTS. IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEARS 50+ KTS AND FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL HELICITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST STORM SPLITS. LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IMPROVES INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND SSCRAM OUTPUT SUGGEST UNCONDITIONAL TOR
PROBABILITIES MAXIMIZING AROUND LHX EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. HREF
UPDRAFT HELICITIES SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE SWATHS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED TO EXTEND FOR AN HOUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS UNTIL 04Z.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EXIT EASTERN CO OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A DOWN DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PROVIDING A MUCH
NEEDED BREAK FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OF LATE. UPPER TROUGH
WHICH IS FORCING TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
WHICH USHERS IN SOME DRIER DEW POINTS AND MORE SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS. THERE IS ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER WAVE THAT GLANCES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT LOWER
CAPE SUGGESTS SUB SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES. -KT
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING, BRINGING A RENEWED SURGE OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS MODEST (CAPE 500-1000 J/KG)
MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR SERN
CORNER OF THE PLANS MAY BOOST CAPE TOWARD 1500 J/KG BY LATE DAY.
OVERALL, EXPECT AN UPTURN IN T-STORM COVERAGE OVER THE ERN
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY TO DRIFT DOWNWARD A FEW DEGF
VERSUS SAT, AS COLD FRONT USHERS IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS MON/TUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS BOTH DAYS, MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS
EAST BY MID/LATE WEEK, WITH FLOW BECOME MORE WLY OVER CO.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, AND WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
PROGGED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S., DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING, BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANYTHING IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL.
KCOS AND KPUB...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 01-02Z, WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND VIS DURING
THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG AT KPUB LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR SATURDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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