139
FXUS65 KPUB 250538
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
- LESS STORMS TOMORROW, A BIT WARMER TOMORROW.
- MOST AREAS DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SLIGHT COOL DOWN ARRIVES FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. STORMS WERE STARTING TO
PUSH OFF ONTO THE PLAINS AND ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WERE
NOTED. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WAS NOTED PER TOTAL PRECIP WATER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DWPTS IN THE 50S ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND 50S OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS PLAINS
INTERFACE EXTENDING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. PER SPC MESO PAGE, 30 KNTS
OF SHEAR WERE NOTED ALONG WITH MIXED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS. WAT VAP IMGY WAS
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE NEAR SALT LAKE CITY WHICH WAS
PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS, MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS, BUT WINDS WERE A BIT BACKED UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY SO
CANT RULE OUT A SHORT LIVED TORNADO.
2ND CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAS NOTED IN THE COLUMN BUT STORMS SHOULD PUSH
STEADILY NORTHEAST IN THE MODEST SW FLOW. HOWEVER, IF STORMS
BECOME ANCHORED OR PINNED OT THE TERRAIN, THEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE.
LATER TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH OVER THE PLAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANTICIPATE MIN TEMPS BY MORNING TO BE IN THE 60S MOST OF PLAINS
WITH A FEW 50S OVER THE PALMER. VALLEYS AND MTNS SHOULD BE IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
TOMORROW...
SHOULD SEE A FEW LESS STORMS AND THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG BUT WE
WILL STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS APPROACHING AROUND 80 ALONG THE LOWER ARK RIVER WITH 80S RES
OF THE PLAINS. AND 70S VALLEYS. SHOWERS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL LIKELY
END QUICKER THAN TONIGHT AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT OF A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD,
GOING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY TO WESTERLY FLOW BY
THIS WEEKEND. WE DRY OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION VERY
ISOLATED, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY BE CAUSE FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN QUITE YET, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH TODAY AND
TOMORROW (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY). WINDS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL FURTHER HELP TO
REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH FRIDAY BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED ON THURSDAY, BUT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
LOCATIONS. CONTINUED DRYING INTO FRIDAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EVEN FARTHER, WITH BEST CHANCES OF WEAK
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS CONTINUE OUR DRYING TREND INTO SATURDAY, KEEPING ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MOST SOLUTIONS STILL POINT
TOWARDS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, AS A LOW BUILDS
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WE RETURN TO VERY MOIST
FLOW HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO FALL
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, TO INCLUDE OUR MOUNTAINS, FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
BROKEN VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. WHILE
THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THESE WILL BE
VERY HIT OR MISS FOR THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON AND PUSH OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 19-20Z. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40 KTS, BRIEF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRIEF VFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE TAF
SITES. WILL CARRY PROB30 AT ALL THREE TERMINALS FOR -TSRA BUT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR
TO THE EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES BY 00Z WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING
OUT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING AFTER 03-04Z. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH/SKELLY/KT
LONG TERM...EHR/HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page