298
FXUS65 KPUB 260537
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND HOTTER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, ONLY VERY ISOLATED,
MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
- STILL HOT SUNDAY, BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/EL PASO
COUNTY AT MID-AFTERNOON, WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY (CAPE 1K-2K) ARE MAXIMIZED AND DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS GREATEST. HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH LARGE
HAIL (MOSTLY PEAS, A FEW DIMES-QUARTERS) OR STRONG WINDS SO
FAR, AND WHILE A LOW END SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING, MAIN RISK MAY BE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS COLORADO
SPRINGS/EL PASO COUNTY THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES (2-3 INCHES/HR AROUND
CALHAN). FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
NOTED, THOUGH OVERALL STORM STRENGTH HAS BEEN WEAKER THAN NEAR
THE PALMER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH HRRR SUGGESTING FAIRLY
LARGE COLD POOL AND GUST FRONT PUSHING A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION EASTWARD ON THE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST OF SCATTERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS, ENDING BETWEEN SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD.
ON THURSDAY, WARMER/DRIER MOST LOCATIONS AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND A DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG
THE NM BORDER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY POP A BRIEF/WEAK
STORM (MOSTLY LIGHTNING/GUSTY WINDS/SPRINKLES) MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS THU WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD, WITH SOME
NEAR 90F READINGS RETURNING TO THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..
CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING, WITH CLOUDS CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL, COOLING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
AND 40S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS BROAD RIDGING GRADUALLY TRIES TO BUILD
IN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS
FOR BOTH DAYS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PIKES PEAK REGION, THOUGH STORM STRENGTH WILL BE LIMITED, WITH
MOSTLY WIND/LIGHTNING/SPRINKLES UNDER MOST ACTIVITY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALSO LOOK TO FALL DOWN INTO THE LOW TO
MID TEENS BOTH AFTERNOONS, THOUGH WEAK WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUBDUED. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS WEAK
ZONAL FLOW SETS IN OVER THE REGION. BOTH DAYS ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON THE PLAINS, AND MID 80S OVER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS BUILD IN MESSY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND
THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, WITH A DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE FRONTSIDE OF
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR A FEW DAYS, BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR DAILY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. AFTER ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT KCOS, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE, <20% OR SO, OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIP AT KCOS, BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND MONITOR FOR UPDATES AS NEEDED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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