924  
FXUS65 KPUB 271728  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1128 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRYING AND WARMING TREND SETS IN TODAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
- DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE, MAINLY OVER THE  
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, PALMER DIVIDE, AND RATON MESA.  
 
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
- THE POTENTIAL FOR MONSOON MOISTURE STILL LOOKS PROMISING THROUGH  
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...  
 
WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS OUR REGION AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH MID-80S TO  
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 80S OVER THE VALLEYS. SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE  
IN FAIRLY SHORT SUPPLY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER  
THE PALMER DIVIDE, THOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS DO SHOW ELEVATED  
HEATING SURFACES OVER THE RATON MESA AND OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS  
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION  
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL PUSH OF TO THE EAST, WITH SOME LONGER-  
LIVED STORMS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE KANSAS BORDER THANKS TO A MORE  
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BIT OF CAPE IN OUR AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH 500-800 J/KG OVER I-25 AND HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER  
EAST. SHEAR MAY BE A BIT LACKING, ONLY ABOUT 25 KNOTS AT MOST. WHILE  
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME, SOME  
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAKE IT OUT TOWARDS THE EASTERN  
BORDER, RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME  
SMALL HAIL AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL DWINDLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 50S-60S OVER THE PLAINS AND 40S  
OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS.  
 
SATURDAY...  
 
TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUING TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD. DISORGANIZED, RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW  
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH MORE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS, WILL ONCE AGAIN  
KEEP ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FAIRLY ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN, ALONG  
WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA. A FEW STORMS MAY MANAGE TO  
PUSH EAST, BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND ISOLATED BY EARLY  
EVENING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER  
SUNSET ON SATURDAY, LEAVING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A  
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, FALLING DOWN INTO THE UPPER  
50S AND LOW 60S. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 40S. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARMER THAN DAY FOR MOST OF SUNDAY, BEFORE A COLD  
FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE  
90S ON THE PLAINS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE  
IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE AN INTERESTING  
DAY. WE'LL HAVE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND  
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN OUR POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. DESPITE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THOUGH (IF THE UPSLOPE DOESN'T  
SOCK US IN WITH CLOUD COVER), STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO OVERCOME A  
CAP DUE TO RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM OUR WEST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE SEE MONDAY, THERE COULD BE  
A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL ALSO BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE SEE, BUT  
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN  
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
TUESDAY ONWARDS..  
 
THE MONSOON HIGH LOOKS TO TRY TO SHOW ITSELF FROM AROUND TUESDAY  
THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST, THOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON  
MIDWEEK MOISTURE POTENTIAL AS FAR AS QPF GOES. MODELS SHOW THE  
HIGH'S INTERACTION WITH A LOW COMING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN ITS EROSION A BIT, BUT ALSO  
RESULTING IN AN INFLUX OF REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM  
OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.  
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH LOOKS MORE DEGRADED AND MESSY THROUGH MID-WEEK,  
THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
STILL DEPICTS PWAT ANOMALIES IN THE 150-200% OF NORMAL RANGE  
STRAIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENT AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE ENTIRE FIRST  
WEEK OF JULY. IF TRENDS HOLD, EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND  
KALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS  
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY TRACK TO THE E-NE ACROSS THE ADJACENT  
PLAINS, BUT MAIN RISKS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND  
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. TERMINAL WILL THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING  
SOME STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE KCOS, SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR KCOS  
TODAY FROM 20Z-02Z. MOORE  
 
 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO  
LONG TERM...EHR  
AVIATION...MOORE  
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