334
FXUS65 KPUB 292024
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
224 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
THIS EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
- COOLER MONDAY, THEN GRADUAL WARMING WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS, WITH BEST CHANCE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CURRENTLY...A BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND INFREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT BEHAVED. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER THIS
EVENING. AS PROMISED, ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS AS OF 1 PM
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 80S TO MID 90S
FOR THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN MTS, AND PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION, WILL BE
THE SOUTHERN END OF A LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING, WITH THE LAST OF THE STORMS
LINGERING ALONG THE KS BORDER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN THREATS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND UP TO HALF
INCH DIAMETER HAIL. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE STORMS LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, SUCH AS IN KIOWA AND PROWERS
COUNTIES, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER OR EVEN SEVERE AS
STORMS TAP INTO AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THOSE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER. CHATS WITH SPC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WATCH
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST, DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS.
TOMORROW...A COOLER POST-FRONTAL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS,
AND AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, PUSHING
LLVL MOISTURE BACK UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING, THEN BECOME LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WHILE SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A GENERAL AREA FOR STORMS, WPC STILL
SHOWS A MARGINAL AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR, SO AREA BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH-FLOODING. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE PLAINS.
MOORE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH JULY 4TH WEEKEND...
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD NOT VARY ALL THAT MUCH.
SOME DAYS WILL BE A BIT DRIER THAN OTHERS (WEDNESDAY) BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MTNS, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY U80S TO M90S PLAINS, AROUND 80 LARGER VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S MTNS.
PRECIP IN THE MTNS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST, I.E., BROAD TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND DOMINANT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
A BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CONUS, AND WILL BRING UP
MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO. GIVEN THIS SETUP, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES IN THE MTNS DURING THIS PERIOD,
AND SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD.
WITH A MAJOR HOLIDAY COMING UP, 4TH OF JULY, IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE PASSABLE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS DAY. STORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG.
TEMPS ON THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 80S ON THE RIDGES AND MID 90S
OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS, AND TEMPS AROUND 80 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS WITH 60S AND 70S MTNS. WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND
APPEARS SIMILAR TO JULY 4TH ITSELF. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CO PLAINS TODAY WILL
SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO A E-NE DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOWERING CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE 19Z-00Z TIME
WINDOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
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