185  
FXUS65 KPUB 010523  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1123 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT  
PLAINS THIS EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING PERIODS OF  
HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING.  
 
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND ON TUESDAY, REACHING NEAR NORMAL  
LEVELS AND WITH VERY LITTLE VARIATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED  
FORECAST.  
 
- DAILY SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COMES ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INTERESTINGLY NIL ACTIVITY ACROSS  
THE EASTERN PLAINS, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUCH AN ACTIVE EARLY MORNING.  
TEMPS AS OF 1 PM HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE  
HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE PLAINS. EASTERLY WINDS AT  
THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, EVEN MAKING  
IT INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  
 
TONIGHT...MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON  
AND INTO THE EVENING, SUCH THAT THERE IS ACTUALLY AN INCREASE IN THE  
QPF IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN SANGRES AND FREMONT COUNTY. WPC  
HAS PICKED UP ON THIS WHILE NOTING THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS, AND  
HAS PAINTED A SLIGHT AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL UP ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS  
PCPN POTENTIAL IS STARTING TO WEAKEN A BIT, AND WHILE THE I-25  
CORRIDOR STILL HAS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY, IT IS LOOKING  
MUCH MORE ISOLATED FARTHER EAST. THEREFORE, THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH  
TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREA BURN  
SCARS AND OTHER HIGH-RISK AREAS, FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW-MOVING STORMS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE  
FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 50S TO  
AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS.  
 
TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE  
FOUR CORNERS AND ROCKY MT REGION ON TUESDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STATIONED JUST OFF THE CA COAST. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY  
MIDDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SPILLING OVER ACROSS THE I-25  
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD,  
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE VERY SLOW, AND EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE  
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THERE ARE STILL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR AREA  
BURN SCARS, AND WPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO IN A MARGINAL  
AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AS FOR TEMPS, THE ENTIRE AREA QUICKLY  
REBOUNDS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE  
HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S TO AROUND 90F FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
NOT ALL THAT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER  
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL MIDLEVEL TROUGHIENESS  
OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP A  
GENERALLY SOMEWHAT MOISTER PATTERN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE THE  
PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK INTO THE JULY 4 HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S TO M90 PLAINS, WITH  
TEMPS IN THE 70S MTNS. VALLEYS SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE L/M80S. AT  
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE WETTEST DAY WILL BE THIS UPCOMING THURSDAY  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. \/HODANISH  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
KCOS, KPUB, KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND BECOME MORE  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR KCOS AND KPUB, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORM FOR KALS  
AS SLOW MOVING PRECIPITATION CORES PUSH OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MOORE  
LONG TERM...HODANISH  
AVIATION...SIMCOE  
 
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