200
FXUS65 KPUB 010848
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
248 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND VALLEYS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER REGION, WITH SCTD SHOWERS
MTNS.VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED PRECIP OVER PLAINS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
TODAY: TUESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY, WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOME, AND DRY FOR OTHERS. A MESSY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE HEIGHTENED UNDER THIS FEATURE, DIURNAL UPSLOPING
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS, AND RECYCLED MOISTURE
IN PLACE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME SPILLAGE ACROSS THE VALLEYS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, A STRONG STORM
OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. ACROSS THE PLAINS, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, CLEAR
SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED FOR THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, A SLOW WARM
UP IS EXPECTED, THOUGH WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL REMAINING
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. WITH THAT SAID, THE PLAINS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S, THE VALLEYS INTO THE 70S, AND THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE 60S.
TONIGHT: HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WITH THIS FEATURE STILL IN PLACE, AND DIURNAL UPSLOPING WANING, ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, BREEZY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND 5 MPH,
WITH CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL FALL TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH THE PLAINS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S,
THE VALLEYS INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 30S.
TOMORROW: FOR MIDWEEK, ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF DAY IS
EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STUBBORN, MESSY, RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. JUST LIKE TUESDAY, WHILE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
HEIGHTENED UNDER THIS FEATURE, DIURNAL UPSLOPING WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED. THIS TERRAIN FORCING, ALONG WITH MINOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION NORTHWARD/RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE, IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MATERIALIZE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH SPILLAGE
ACROSS THE VALLEYS ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO LIKE
TUESDAY, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH A STRONG STORM OR
TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50
MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF
THAT, CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AROUND 15-20
MPH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE SLOW
WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH VALUES NEARING SEASONAL VALUES FOR
EARLY JULY. THE PLAINS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, THE
VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
BROAD MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES OVER THE FCST AREA. OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE PLAINS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ENHANCED CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH MOVES EASTWARD, AND THIS WILL BRING SOME BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE MTNS ON THIS DAY.
GIVEN THE MONSOON PATTERN IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH
MAY CAUSE HIGH WATER ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IN BURN SCAR REGION AND
AREAS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
AS FOR THE PLAINS, IT LOOKS RATHER DRY. THE ONLY CHANCE OF SOME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP COULD BE ON FRIDAY (4 JULY) IF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS TO OUR NORTH CAN BRING DOWN A BOUNDARY, THIS COULD
INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE OVER THE PLAINS GIVING US A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
KCOS, KPUB, KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND BECOME MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR KCOS AND KPUB, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORM FOR KALS
AS SLOW MOVING PRECIPITATION CORES PUSH OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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