435
UXUS97 KPUB 031444
SRGPUB
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO, COLORADO
0844 MDT THURSDAY, JULY 3, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR VILLA GROVE, CO FOR THURSDAY, JULY 3, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 66.5 F/19.2 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1043 FT/MIN (5.3 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 20330 FT MSL (11353 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 81.0 F/27.7 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 0930 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ 1800 MDT
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 17733 FT MSL (8756 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 07/04....... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:45:14 / 20:30:40 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 45 MIN 26 SEC (885 MIN 26 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:07:57 MDT... 74.53 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 07/03/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 16206 FT MSL (7229 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 17182 FT MSL (8205 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 18994 FT MSL (10017 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -3.3
K INDEX......................... -3.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.1 -83.4 210 17 9 3.9 2.1 M M M M M
45000 -57.4 -71.3 230 24 13 5.4 3.0 M M M M M
40000 -49.2 -56.6 235 40 20 5.9 3.2 M M M M M
38000 -45.7 -50.3 235 38 20 5.9 3.2 M M M M M
36000 -42.2 -44.0 240 37 19 5.9 3.2 M M M M M
34000 -37.5 -35.5 235 29 15 8.0 4.4 M M M M M
32000 -32.1 -25.8 225 20 10 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
30000 -27.7 -17.9 215 16 8 7.3 4.0 36.7 98.1 7.4 M M
29000 -25.5 -13.9 210 14 7 7.3 4.0 35.9 96.5 6.8 M M
28000 -23.3 -9.9 200 13 7 7.4 4.1 35.0 95.1 6.2 M M
27000 -21.1 -6.0 190 13 7 7.4 4.1 34.1 93.3 5.5 M M
26000 -18.9 -2.0 180 13 7 7.4 4.1 33.2 91.8 4.9 M M
25000 -16.7 1.9 175 14 7 7.3 4.0 32.5 90.5 4.3 M M
24000 -14.6 5.7 170 14 7 6.9 3.8 31.4 88.6 3.4 M M
23000 -12.6 9.3 165 14 7 6.9 3.8 30.4 86.7 2.6 M M
22000 -10.5 13.1 160 14 7 6.7 3.7 29.5 85.1 1.8 M M
21000 -8.6 16.5 150 13 7 6.3 3.5 28.3 82.9 0.7 M M
20000 -6.7 19.9 135 13 7 6.3 3.5 27.1 80.8 -0.3 1020 5.2
19500 -5.7 21.7 130 13 7 6.5 3.5 26.6 79.8 -0.7 976 5.0
19000 -4.8 23.4 125 13 6 5.1 2.8 26.0 78.7 -1.2 933 4.7
18500 -3.9 25.0 115 11 6 5.4 3.0 25.2 77.3 -1.8 893 4.5
18000 -3.0 26.6 105 10 5 5.4 3.0 24.5 76.1 -2.4 852 4.3
17500 -2.3 27.9 090 9 5 4.7 2.6 23.7 74.7 -3.2 815 4.1
17000 -1.6 29.1 075 9 4 4.7 2.6 22.9 73.2 -4.0 780 4.0
16500 -0.8 30.6 060 8 4 6.9 3.8 22.2 72.0 -4.7 741 3.8
16000 0.6 33.1 040 7 4 7.8 4.3 21.6 70.9 -5.5 675 3.4
15500 1.7 35.1 025 6 3 8.4 4.6 21.4 70.5 -5.9 628 3.2
15000 2.9 37.2 355 4 2 8.6 4.7 21.1 70.1 -6.3 578 2.9
14500 4.0 39.2 315 5 2 8.1 4.5 20.9 69.7 -6.6 530 2.7
14000 5.2 41.4 295 5 2 8.3 4.6 20.7 69.2 -7.0 480 2.4
13500 6.3 43.3 275 6 3 7.8 4.3 20.5 68.9 -7.3 430 2.2
13000 7.4 45.3 260 5 3 8.1 4.4 20.2 68.3 -7.8 384 2.0
12500 8.5 47.3 245 5 3 7.4 4.1 19.9 67.8 -8.2 336 1.7
12000 9.3 48.7 235 5 3 6.0 3.3 19.3 66.7 -8.9 298 1.5
11750 9.7 49.5 230 5 3 7.2 3.9 19.1 66.3 -9.2 277 1.4
11500 10.2 50.4 225 5 3 6.6 3.6 18.8 65.9 -9.5 256 1.3
11250 10.6 51.1 225 5 3 5.4 3.0 18.6 65.4 -9.8 236 1.2
11000 11.0 51.8 225 5 3 4.8 2.7 18.2 64.8 -10.2 217 1.1
10750 11.3 52.3 220 5 3 5.1 2.8 17.8 64.1 -10.6 199 1.0
10500 11.8 53.2 220 5 3 4.7 2.6 17.5 63.4 -10.9 178 0.9
10250 12.2 54.0 215 5 2 3.5 1.9 17.0 62.7 -11.3 159 0.8
10000 12.5 54.5 215 5 2 2.7 1.5 16.5 61.8 -11.7 143 0.7
9750 12.8 55.0 210 5 2 3.7 2.0 16.0 60.8 -12.2 126 0.6
9500 13.0 55.4 210 5 2 -0.6 -0.3 15.5 59.9 -12.7 112 0.6
9250 12.5 54.5 215 4 2 -12.8 -7.0 14.3 57.7 -13.9 119 0.6
9000 11.4 52.5 255 3 1 -12.4 -6.8 12.4 54.3 -15.8 144 0.7
8750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
07/03/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 07/03/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.5 | CAPE... +41.8 LI... -0.3
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +7.0 | CINH... -0.9 K INDEX... +13.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.8 -82.8 190 22 11 3.6 2.0 | -63.7 -82.7 205 22 11 3.2 1.7
45000 -57.7 -71.9 210 27 14 4.9 2.7 | -58.1 -72.6 210 31 16 4.9 2.7
40000 -49.9 -57.8 230 40 21 6.5 3.6 | -49.8 -57.6 225 43 22 6.9 3.8
38000 -46.0 -50.8 230 39 20 6.5 3.6 | -45.6 -50.1 225 42 22 6.9 3.8
36000 -42.1 -43.8 230 38 19 6.6 3.6 | -41.5 -42.7 225 42 21 7.4 4.0
34000 -37.5 -35.5 230 32 16 7.7 4.2 | -36.7 -34.1 220 35 18 7.9 4.3
32000 -32.3 -26.1 220 25 13 8.5 4.7 | -32.0 -25.6 210 28 14 8.8 4.8
30000 -27.7 -17.9 210 20 10 7.8 4.3 | -27.5 -17.5 200 23 12 7.6 4.2
29000 -25.4 -13.7 205 18 9 7.8 4.3 | -25.2 -13.4 190 22 11 7.6 4.2
28000 -23.1 -9.6 195 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -23.0 -9.4 185 21 11 7.2 4.0
27000 -21.0 -5.8 185 15 8 7.1 3.9 | -20.9 -5.6 185 20 10 7.0 3.8
26000 -18.8 -1.8 180 15 8 7.1 3.9 | -18.3 -0.9 180 19 10 7.0 3.8
25000 -16.7 1.9 170 15 8 7.0 3.9 | -16.3 2.7 180 18 9 6.8 3.7
24000 -14.7 5.5 165 14 7 6.8 3.7 | -14.4 6.1 180 16 8 6.5 3.6
23000 -12.6 9.3 165 13 7 6.8 3.7 | -12.4 9.7 180 14 7 6.5 3.6
22000 -10.6 12.9 165 12 6 6.8 3.7 | -10.5 13.1 175 12 6 6.3 3.4
21000 -8.6 16.5 155 12 6 6.9 3.8 | -8.7 16.3 180 10 5 6.0 3.3
20000 -6.5 20.3 145 11 6 6.9 3.8 | -6.9 19.6 180 9 5 6.0 3.3
19500 -5.5 22.1 140 11 6 7.0 3.8 | -6.0 21.2 180 8 4 6.0 3.3
19000 -4.5 23.9 135 11 6 5.5 3.0 | -5.1 22.8 180 8 4 6.0 3.3
18500 -3.6 25.5 125 10 5 5.6 3.1 | -4.1 24.6 170 7 4 6.0 3.3
18000 -2.7 27.1 115 10 5 5.4 3.0 | -3.2 26.2 165 6 3 5.7 3.1
17500 -1.9 28.6 105 9 5 4.6 2.5 | -2.3 27.9 155 5 2 5.1 2.8
17000 -1.2 29.8 095 8 4 4.6 2.5 | -1.5 29.3 135 4 2 5.1 2.8
16500 -0.4 31.3 080 8 4 6.0 3.3 | -0.6 30.9 110 3 2 6.9 3.8
16000 0.5 32.9 070 7 4 6.5 3.6 | 0.3 32.5 085 3 2 7.3 4.0
15500 1.3 34.3 055 8 4 7.7 4.2 | 1.2 34.2 065 4 2 8.8 4.8
15000 3.0 37.4 025 5 3 8.8 4.8 | 2.5 36.5 055 3 1 9.3 5.1
14500 4.1 39.4 005 4 2 7.7 4.2 | 3.8 38.8 040 1 1 8.7 4.8
14000 5.3 41.5 340 4 2 8.4 4.6 | 5.0 41.0 000 0 0 9.8 5.4
13500 6.5 43.7 315 5 2 6.9 3.8 | 6.4 43.5 225 2 1 9.7 5.3
13000 7.4 45.3 300 4 2 8.3 4.6 | 8.2 46.8 215 3 2 11.5 6.3
12500 8.5 47.3 285 4 2 7.4 4.1 | 9.8 49.6 215 4 2 9.5 5.2
12000 9.4 48.9 265 4 2 6.6 3.6 | 10.9 51.6 210 4 2 9.8 5.4
11750 9.9 49.8 265 4 2 8.1 4.5 | 11.8 53.2 210 4 2 11.8 6.5
11500 10.4 50.7 260 5 3 6.8 3.7 | 12.6 54.7 210 4 2 10.7 5.9
11250 10.8 51.4 255 5 3 4.3 2.3 | 13.4 56.1 210 4 2 9.6 5.3
11000 11.1 52.0 255 6 3 3.4 1.9 | 14.1 57.4 210 4 2 9.2 5.1
10750 11.4 52.5 255 7 3 3.5 1.9 | 14.8 58.6 205 4 2 10.5 5.7
10500 11.6 52.9 250 7 4 4.2 2.3 | 15.6 60.1 205 4 2 11.2 6.1
10250 12.0 53.6 245 7 4 6.6 3.6 | 16.4 61.5 205 4 2 10.6 5.8
10000 12.6 54.7 240 7 4 7.6 4.2 | 17.2 63.0 205 4 2 10.8 5.9
9750 13.1 55.6 240 7 4 7.3 4.0 | 18.0 64.4 205 4 2 9.7 5.3
9500 13.8 56.8 235 7 4 12.8 7.0 | 18.8 65.8 200 4 2 14.3 7.9
9250 15.1 59.2 230 7 3 23.4 12.9 | 20.3 68.5 200 4 2 29.1 16.0
9000 16.8 62.2 230 6 3 15.7 8.6 | 22.7 72.9 200 4 2 30.7 16.8
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
07/03/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 07/03/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +84.5 LI... -1.4 | CAPE... +88.2 LI... -1.5
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... +21.8 | CINH... -15.3 K INDEX... +25.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.9 -83.0 200 28 14 2.9 1.6 | -64.1 -83.4 205 27 14 2.5 1.4
45000 -58.2 -72.8 205 39 20 5.5 3.0 | -58.8 -73.8 205 40 21 5.6 3.0
40000 -49.3 -56.7 220 44 23 6.6 3.6 | -49.5 -57.1 210 44 23 7.4 4.0
38000 -45.4 -49.7 220 45 23 6.6 3.6 | -45.1 -49.2 210 44 23 7.4 4.0
36000 -41.4 -42.5 215 45 23 7.3 4.0 | -40.7 -41.3 210 44 23 7.5 4.1
34000 -36.4 -33.5 215 39 20 8.4 4.6 | -36.1 -33.0 210 39 20 7.7 4.2
32000 -31.4 -24.5 210 34 17 8.2 4.5 | -31.5 -24.7 210 35 18 8.3 4.5
30000 -26.9 -16.4 205 29 15 7.5 4.1 | -26.7 -16.1 210 30 15 8.3 4.6
29000 -24.6 -12.3 205 27 14 7.6 4.1 | -24.2 -11.6 210 28 14 8.3 4.6
28000 -22.4 -8.3 205 25 13 7.1 3.9 | -21.8 -7.2 210 26 13 7.3 4.0
27000 -19.9 -3.8 210 23 12 6.8 3.7 | -19.4 -2.9 215 25 13 6.5 3.6
26000 -17.9 -0.2 210 22 11 6.8 3.7 | -17.5 0.5 220 24 12 6.5 3.6
25000 -15.9 3.4 215 20 11 6.4 3.5 | -15.6 3.9 225 24 12 6.7 3.7
24000 -14.2 6.4 210 18 9 5.9 3.2 | -13.5 7.7 225 22 11 7.1 3.9
23000 -12.5 9.5 210 16 8 5.9 3.2 | -11.5 11.3 225 20 10 7.1 3.9
22000 -10.8 12.6 205 14 7 5.7 3.1 | -9.4 15.1 225 18 9 6.1 3.3
21000 -9.2 15.4 205 11 6 5.4 2.9 | -8.1 17.4 210 13 7 4.4 2.4
20000 -7.6 18.3 210 9 5 5.4 2.9 | -6.8 19.8 190 10 5 4.4 2.4
19500 -6.8 19.8 215 8 4 5.3 2.9 | -6.2 20.8 170 9 4 4.3 2.3
19000 -5.9 21.4 215 7 3 6.4 3.5 | -5.5 22.1 160 8 4 5.9 3.3
18500 -5.0 23.0 215 6 3 6.4 3.5 | -4.6 23.7 160 7 4 5.9 3.2
18000 -4.1 24.6 210 5 3 7.1 3.9 | -3.8 25.2 155 7 3 6.1 3.3
17500 -3.0 26.6 200 5 3 8.3 4.6 | -2.9 26.8 165 6 3 6.4 3.5
17000 -1.8 28.8 195 5 3 8.3 4.5 | -1.9 28.6 175 5 3 6.2 3.4
16500 -0.6 30.9 185 5 3 9.4 5.2 | -0.9 30.4 185 5 3 8.4 4.6
16000 0.8 33.4 180 5 3 9.4 5.2 | 0.4 32.7 195 5 3 8.4 4.6
15500 2.2 36.0 180 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 1.6 34.9 205 5 3 8.6 4.7
15000 3.6 38.5 175 6 3 9.9 5.4 | 2.9 37.2 210 5 3 8.8 4.8
14500 5.1 41.2 175 6 3 8.8 4.8 | 4.2 39.6 220 6 3 8.6 4.7
14000 6.4 43.5 170 6 3 10.1 5.5 | 5.4 41.7 220 6 3 9.1 5.0
13500 7.9 46.2 165 6 3 10.1 5.6 | 6.7 44.1 225 6 3 9.2 5.1
13000 9.9 49.8 160 7 3 10.8 5.9 | 8.7 47.7 225 5 3 10.1 5.5
12500 11.5 52.7 155 7 3 9.6 5.2 | 10.1 50.2 230 5 3 9.0 5.0
12000 12.7 54.9 155 7 4 9.8 5.4 | 11.3 52.3 230 5 3 9.3 5.1
11750 13.6 56.5 150 7 4 11.3 6.2 | 12.1 53.8 235 5 2 11.4 6.3
11500 14.4 57.9 150 7 4 10.6 5.8 | 12.9 55.2 235 5 2 10.5 5.8
11250 15.1 59.2 150 7 4 9.7 5.3 | 13.6 56.5 240 5 2 9.3 5.1
11000 15.8 60.4 150 7 4 9.3 5.1 | 14.3 57.7 235 4 2 8.6 4.7
10750 16.6 61.9 145 7 4 10.7 5.9 | 15.0 59.0 235 4 2 10.6 5.8
10500 17.4 63.3 145 7 4 11.5 6.3 | 15.8 60.4 235 4 2 11.6 6.4
10250 18.2 64.8 145 7 4 10.8 5.9 | 16.6 61.9 235 4 2 9.9 5.4
10000 19.0 66.2 145 7 4 10.6 5.8 | 17.3 63.1 235 4 2 9.1 5.0
9750 19.8 67.6 145 7 4 10.5 5.8 | 18.0 64.4 235 4 2 9.3 5.1
9500 20.6 69.1 140 7 4 13.0 7.1 | 18.7 65.7 235 4 2 11.2 6.2
9250 21.9 71.4 140 7 4 24.0 13.2 | 19.8 67.6 230 3 2 17.3 9.5
9000 24.5 76.1 140 7 4 46.9 25.7 | 21.3 70.3 230 3 2 24.6 13.5
8750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
8000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). IT IS NOT CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL
ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR VILLA GROVE, COLORADO AT:
NORTH LATITUDE: 38 DEG 16 MIN 03 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 105 DEG 53 MIN 37 SEC
ELEVATION: 7986 FEET (2434 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CIN (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
042613
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page