617
FXUS65 KPUB 050524
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED HOT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH UPPER 80S TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 80S
FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
- THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANGES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY TRACK SOUTH, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND UPPER 70S
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO, WITH ENERGY SOUTH
INTO OUR PLAINS. THIS HAS HELP TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING, EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST, REMAINING NORTH OF A COLORADO SPRINGS TO KIM
LINE. MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. MEANWHILE, UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. NAM AND GFS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 700-1000 J/KG EXIST WHERE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ARE, WHICH MAY HELP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG, TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE HAVING HAIL LARGER THAN 1
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THIS
EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY COULD CAUSE WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LOSE STEAM HAS IT CONTINUES SOUTH,
WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER LATER THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO DROP ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTHEASTERLY ON THE PLAINS, HELPING TO KEEP
MODEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS; DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. THIS WILL LEAD TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE UPPER ENERGY,
WILL HELP GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND RATON
MESA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS, WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, WITH UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND MID 80S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
UPPER WAVE PUSHES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN,
WITH HINTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS ERN CO
DURING THE DAY. BEST MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH AIR MASS GETTING PROGRESSIVELY
DRIER FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. INSTABILITY ON
THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 INCREASES TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR RISES INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE AS
MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW AND SURFACE S-SE WINDS BOTH INCREASE. EXPECT
STORMS TO FIRE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25 EARLY THE
AFTERNOON, THEN STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SWODY3 HAS ERN CO HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. SIMILAR
SET-UP FOR MON, WITH AGAIN BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS SPREADING
FROM THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS BY EVENING. MAX TEMPS BOTH SUN/MON WILL HANG OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGF OF EARLY JULY AVERAGES AT MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD STARTING TUE, THOUGH ENOUGH
MOISTURE LINGERS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN AT MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER WIND SHEAR/CAPE VALUES ARGUING FOR WEAKER
STORMS. GENERALLY HOTTER/DRIER WED/THU WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES, THEN HINTS OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH/COLD FRONT AS
EARLY AS FRI, WITH AN UPTURN IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPS CREEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TUE-THU, THEN POTENTIALLY
BEGIN TO FALL SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
KCOS, KPUB, AND KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING DEVELOPS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES, THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR KCOS AND KPUB, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AROUND 10%,
IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 60 MPH
MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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