802
FXUS65 KPUB 062012
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
212 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HOT AND BREEZY THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND THE
SOUTHERN US, WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LLVL MOISTURE THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING HAS PERSISTED, PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR CONVECTION FIRING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 80S
TO AROUND 90F FOR THE PLAINS AS OF 1 PM.
TONIGHT...JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROVIDING THE TRIGGER TO TAP INTO AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CO AND WY UNTIL 8
PM. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS WATCH BOX DIPS DOWN ACROSS EL PASO AND
KIOWA COUNTIES, AND THOUGH MUCH OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE, A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE MAIN THREATS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS
OF 60 TO POSSIBLY 70 MPH, AND HAIL UP TO AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER.
HI-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING 1600-2000J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SE PLAINS, AND 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SPIN BOOST OFF OF THE PALMER. THOUGH THERE ARE ONLY THE TWO
COUNTIES INCLUDED WITHIN THE WATCH, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN
ACTIVE NIGHT WITH STRONG STORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER LATE AND PERHAPS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT. FURTHER WEST, MUCH
DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE (30S VS 50S) SO WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED, NOTHING TOO STRONG IS ANTICIPATED AND ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN SOON AFTER SUNSET WHEN HEATING ENDS. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS.
MONDAY...TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE ANOTHER BUSY DAY, AND WILL
HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED BACK TOWARDS
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OUTFLOW TONIGHT, AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE
IS THAT COULD INHIBIT HEATING. INDICATIONS ON HOW BUSY IT COULD BE
WILL LIKELY BE KNOWN BY 11 AM. SPC HAS DROPPED THE SLIGHT AREA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DOWN ACROSS EASTERN CO ONCE AGAIN, AND WPC HAS
COVERED PRETTY MUCH ALL OF EASTERN CO WITH A MARGINAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND MID 80S TO AROUND 90F FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION REMAINS PROGGED TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WHILE THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD. AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WARM INTO THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 70S AND 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF
THE UPPER HIGH BEING SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FASTER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. AHEAD OF THE FIRST PASSING WAVE ON THURSDAY, WILL BRING
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THIS PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LEADING TO COOLER, CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND, AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS OF MIDDAY, AND
TODAY LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS,
INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND KALS. HOWEVER,
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR TO EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED VSBY AND CIGS. STORM ACTIVITY IT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN THREATS FROM
STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50-60 KTS,
UP TO 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
KCOS & KPUB: SE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22-25 KTS STARTING BY
20Z, WITH PROB30 FOR -TSRA, LOWERING CIGS AND VARIABLE GUSTS TO 35
KT FROM 20Z-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 02Z.
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND OVER SURROUNDING MTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY STORMS
TO TRACK IN THE VICINITY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
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