361
FXUS65 KPUB 120001
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
601 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, MARGINAL SEVERE WX AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- COOLER TOMORROW WITH A LESSER AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS(SOME STILL STRONG W/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN).
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
CURRENTLY, EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOTED ALONG MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WERE IN THE 80S ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE PLAINS
WITH 70S VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S MTNS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATED ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WERE NOTED ON THE PLAINS WITH 20-25 KNTS OF
SHEAR. PWATS WERE ABOUT NORMAL OVER THE PLAINS BUT IT WAS QUITE DRY
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OT INCREASE AND PUSH OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BE MORE OF A LATER
SHOW AS MOST OF THE STORMS WILL NOT GET THEIR ACTS TOGETHER UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE PLAINS. WITH JUST MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR
AVAILABLE, PRIMARILY EXPECT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE
SEVERAL STORMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ANY STORMS WHICH TRAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALLY FLOODING
ISSUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS AND
SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY
AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS.
FOR TOMORROW, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE PLAINS, AND IT
WILL BE RATHER VERY COOL TOMORROW AS MAX TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
GET INTO THE 70S AND 80S OVER THE PLAINS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY
ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN THE SE CO PLAINS TOMORROW DUE TO THE COOLER
AIR ADVECTING ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOMORROW, BUT ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE A LATE SHOW DUE TO THE
COOLER AIR OVER THE PLAINS. OVERALL, THE BEST AREAS OF UNSTABLE AIR
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE, AND THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE TOMORROW. STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOMORROW EARLY EVENING. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SUNDAY - THURSDAY: THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ACTIVE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EACH DAY, AS SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. OVERALL, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS LONG
TERM FORECAST, WITH MESSY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. WHILE NO MAJOR FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED,
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN,
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF ENHANCED FORCING FROM FRONTAL SURGES LATE
IN THIS PERIOD. WITH THESE FORCING MECHANISMS, ALONG WITH
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE EACH DAY, DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,
WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, GREATER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. AND LIKE MOST SUMMER DAYS, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THE
MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BEYOND
ALL OF THAT, BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES,
THROUGH TUESDAY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A COOL DOWN
TO BELOW SEASONAL VALUES IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
COS AND PUB...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 40KTS AND SMALL HAIL AT THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH DEVELOPING
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW LEADING TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CIGS WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
ALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL WIND REGIMES AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE LOW END CHANCES OF
STORMS AT THE TERMINAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH/MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW
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