690
FXUS65 KPUB 132008
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
208 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- TEMPS TOMORROW 2-3F WARMER THAN TODAY.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
- COLD FRONT TO COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
CURRENTLY...
N/NE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE. SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN REFLECTED THIS AS PRECIP WAS
MOVING IN A GENERAL SW/RLY DIRECTION. TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE L80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND APPROACHING
80 IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. MTNS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S THROUGH 70S.
REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...
PER SHORT RANGE HI RES GUIDANCE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT, AND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FORM
THE NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY EXPAND
SOUTHWARD. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS, AND I AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS OCCUR. I DO EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO PUSH OUT TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT THE HRRR MAY
BE A BIT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON PUSHING A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL
OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT.
STORMS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG OR AS ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAY LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, BUT NONETHELESS WE SHOULD SEE
SOME STORMS WARRANT SPS'S LATER THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. THE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY END LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TOMORROW...
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WITH SOME WEAK
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW, SO STORMS TOMORROW WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE ON
PUSHING ONTO THE PLAINS AND STAYING TOGETHER FOR AWHILE BEFORE DYING
IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAYS MAX TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS INTO THE MID
90S FROM CANON CITY TO THE KS BORDER, WITH AROUND 90 ON THE RIDGES.
MID 80S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS
SHOULD END BY MID EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
GENERALLY, THERE WILL BE A DAILY SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
TEMPORARILY COOL AT LEAST THE EASTERN PLAINS MIDWEEK, THEN THERE IS
A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TUESDAY...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CA WILL WEAKEN, AS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN US.
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS THE ROCKY MT REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE FIRST ONE WILL BE TUESDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CO.
HOWEVER, PRIOR TO THAT VERY WARM TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND HELP BOOST TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMES
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS, WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING. PLAN ON
HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS TO BE IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS. FOR
THE PLAINS, TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON MON,
THEN 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR TUE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT WILL HELP DROP TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE EAST
BOTH DAYS, AND THE RESULTANT EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL AID
IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED WED AND THU DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THERE IS SOME HESITATION IN SAYING THIS, BUT
THE UPPER PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MONSOON-LIKE BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF AND AN UPPER LOW SITTING
OVER THE CA BAJA. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE PUSHES HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI
AND SAT BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED, BUT
CONVECTION POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED AND WIDESPREAD. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
FOR THE MOST PART, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS, KPUB AND KALS. THERE
WILL BE SOME PASSING SHOWERS/-TSRA WHICH MAY AFFECT KCOS AND
KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER THIS EVENING. MY CONFIDENCE OF
THIS PRECIP IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH, BUT A PROB30 WAS INTRODUCED
INTO THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES OCCUR,
THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY LOCAL OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
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