250
FXUS65 KPUB 152339
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
DAYS.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO FORECAST.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH SLOWLY DECREASING COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH FROM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2025
ISOLATED WEAK/HIGH BASED/BRIEF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AS RATHER LOW INSTABILITY (CAPE 300-800 J/KG) AND
LACK OF MUCH UPWARD FORCING WERE LIMITING STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST, PRODUCING
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BUT ONLY BRIEF RAINFALL.
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY, WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY/COLD
FRONT MAY HELP GENERATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER/LONGER LASTING
STORMS. OVERNIGHT, COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS,
BRINGING GUSTY N-NE WINDS AS A COOLER/MOISTER AIR MASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS TRAILING EDGE
OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL, WITH VALUES AROUND 30 KTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME DEVELOPS, LEADING TO
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AS CAPE CLIMBS INTO THE 1000-2500 J/KG
RANGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS MOVING INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
SWODY2 SHOWING SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND MARGINAL
RISK OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS AGAIN
THE MAIN RISK, THOUGH 30KT SHEAR/2000+ J/KG CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE UNDER ANY STRONGER STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH PWATS OF AROUND
AN INCH AREN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE MUCH
COOLER IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH MAINLY 80S VALLEYS/LOWER
ELEVATIONS, 60S/70S MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2025
CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.
THURSDAY...A DAY 2 SCENARIO SETS UP, WITH ABUNDANT LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2500 J/KG OF
CAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT BULK SHEAR IS
MORE LIMITED. IF THE MORNING STABILITY CAN BE BROKEN, THEN IT
WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND QPF
BULLSEYES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND SOUTHERN
BORDER. THU WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MAX TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL SPORTING A MONSOON-
LIKE LOOK THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF AND AN
UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE CA BAJA. CONVECTION POTENTIAL REMAINS
ELEVATED AND WIDESPREAD, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP TO
SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE GULF SPREADING WEST, AND EFFECTIVELY CRIMPING DOWN THE
MOISTURE FEED OUT OF MEXICO AND UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THERE
WILL STILL BE A DAILY SHOT OF CONVECTION, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE TIED MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH JUST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY, BUT THEN CREEP UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MONDAY. MOORE
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2025
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CHANGING WIND
DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING, BRINGING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON STATION, ALONG WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DURING
STRONGER STORMS, WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z.
FOR KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF STATION, WITH LIGHTNING OBSERVED WITHIN 10NM THIS HOUR.
BRIEF SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTY
AND VARIABLE WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH THAT
TIME AS WELL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR
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