544
FXUS65 KPUB 170914
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
314 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
- VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE DAY TO DAY WX DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
- BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS AS WEAK MONSOON PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US, THOUGH WITH A VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW DRIFTING
OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO TAKE PLACE, ALONG WITH BRINGING A PERIOD OF
INCREASED BROADER FORCING FROM THE VORT MAX. IN ADDITION,
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY, ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPING INTO PROMINENT EASTERN TERRAIN FEATURES.
THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE MID 50 TO LOW 60
DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED, WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON, AND
THEN PUSH ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST,
THOUGH PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-
25 CORRIDOR. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS, THOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALONG WITH THAT, GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND
RESULTING SLOW STORM MOTIONS, ALONG WITH MINOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THAT ALL SAID, SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
START DISSIPATE BY THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS
INSTABILITY WANES, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 15 MPH, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RETURNING BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, DAYTIME HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS RISING
INTO THE 80S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, WITH
THE PLAINS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, THE VALLEYS INTO
THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
TOMORROW: FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. WHILE NO MAJOR
FORCING IS ANTICIPATED, OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE, AND THIS,
ALONG WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT OVER, WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BLOOM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON, AND START PUSHING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND, HAIL, AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY QUICKLY BRINGS
BACK THE HEAT, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA WARMING TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO LIKELY PRECIP ANTICIPATED IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH 90-94 ANTICIPATED ON
PLAINS, MID 80S VALLEYS AND 60S AND 70S MTNS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MTNS WITH LITTLE PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS
(BEST CHANCE I-25 CORRIDOR REGIONS). TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH 90-100F ON PLAINS, MID 80S LARGER VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S MTNS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS WITH ISOLATED PRECIP
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS. A BIT OF A COOLING TREND EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO THE MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK, SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK 20 FOOT WINDS AND RH
VALUES NOT FALLING TO CRITICAL VALUES. RAINFALL OVER THE MTNS WILL
ALSO ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE MTNS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND, BUT QPF VALUES
DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME PER DESI/WPC GUIDANCE. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2025
AT KALS, LINGERING CHANCE FOR A BRIEF -TSRA 00Z-02Z THIS
EVENING, THEN VFR OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES/VCSH 10Z-17Z
THU MORNING, THOUGH CHANCE LOOKED TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS POINT. PROB30 FOR TSRA RETURNS AFTER 19Z, CONTINUING
THROUGH 00Z.
AT KCOS, KEPT PROB30 FOR TSRA UNTIL 03Z, AS RADAR SHOWS SOME
REDEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER MUCH OF EL
PASO COUNTY. CONVECTION FADES AFTER 03Z, WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
STRATUS 10Z-15Z AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SELY. VFR RETURNS AFTER
15Z, THEN PROB30 FROM 20Z-24Z AS TSRA MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND
BACK INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
AT KPUB, KEPT PROB30 FOR TSRA UNTIL 04Z, AS RADAR AND A FEW CAMS
SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
CONVECTION FADES AFTER 04Z, WITH MVFR STRATUS 10Z-15Z AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN SELY. VFR RETURNS AFTER 15Z, THEN PROB30 FROM
20Z-24Z AS TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM THE WEST.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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