777
FXUS65 KPUB 180452
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1052 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS.
- VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE DAY TO DAY WX DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
- BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS AS WEAK MONSOON PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE REGION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS LESSENED CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN THIS, THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN PLACE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
CURRENTLY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING WITH AND EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO IS SPARKING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR WHICH HAS HELPED
LIMIT THE AFTERNOON HEATING SO FAR. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE HELPING TO
KEEP MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS.
REST OF TODAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES
HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 2500 J/KG ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED THE LONGEST, BASED ON THE RAP GUIDANCE. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES
EXCEEDING AN INCH. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK, AROUND 25 KTS, WHICH
SHOULD HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG, HOWEVER, A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WEAK STEERING FLOWS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS. IN ADDITION, THE AREAS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH
HAVE SATURATED SOILS, ENHANCING RUNOFF ABILITY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS, REMEMBER, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK
EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST AS WELL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE STORM TRACK
EASTWARD, WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD, WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY
MORNING.
FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS COLORADO,
WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ALLOW FOR WARMING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. WEAK ENERGY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN COLORADO,
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOWS SHOULD KEEP A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE FORECAST MOVE MIX
EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR, PUSHING THE MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD A STORM MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND IN THE
PLAINS, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. PWAT VALUES
ALSO FALL OFF, WHICH SHOULD HELP LOWER RAINFALL INTENSITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND NEAR 80S ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SCATTERED TO LIKELY PRECIP ANTICIPATED IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH 90-94 ANTICIPATED ON
PLAINS, MID 80S VALLEYS AND 60S AND 70S MTNS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MTNS WITH LITTLE PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS
(BEST CHANCE I-25 CORRIDOR REGIONS). TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH 90-100F ON PLAINS, MID 80S LARGER VALLEYS
AND 60S AND 70S MTNS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS WITH ISOLATED PRECIP
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS. A BIT OF A COOLING TREND EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO THE MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK, SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK 20 FOOT WINDS AND RH
VALUES NOT FALLING TO CRITICAL VALUES. RAINFALL OVER THE MTNS WILL
ALSO ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE MTNS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND, BUT QPF VALUES
DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME PER DESI/WPC GUIDANCE. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT, THOUGH BRIEFLY MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS GIVEN
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AND PRIMARILY EASTERLY INTO TOMORROW,
WITH VERY SLIGHT (30%) CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH STATIONS.
FOR KALS..LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FROM 11Z
UNTIL 14Z THIS MORNING, DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE) FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 21Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...EHR
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