949
FXUS65 KPUB 181128
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
528 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TOMORROW.
- VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE DAY TO DAY WX DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
- BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE MTNS AS WEAK MONSOON PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
TODAY: THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL US.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO BE
IN PLACE. ALONG WITH THAT, MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH TERRAIN FORCING, AND AMPLE MOISTURE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON, AND START TO PUSH ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH STORM BASES AND LARGE
DCAPE VALUES, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS, THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, WITH WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND
10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AND WARM
FRIDAY, WITH THE PLAINS HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, THE
VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 50S TO
LOW 70S.
TONIGHT: HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EARLY, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. WHILE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND NORTHWARD
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STILL BE ONGOING, DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BEGIN TO WANE. GIVEN ALL OF THAT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME EXPANSION
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THAT ALL SAID THOUGH, SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START DISSIPATING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY LIGHT, AROUND 5 MPH, WITH
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN THIS PERIOD BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A MILD AND SEASONAL NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED, WITH THE PLAINS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S, THE
VALLEYS INTO THE 50S, THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MID 30S TO 40S.
TOMORROW: FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND, A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE DAY
IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD TO CONTINUE. GIVEN THIS, SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BLOSSOM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MID AFTERNOON, AND THEN PUSH ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY BE A BIT
HIGHER AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY, AS A VORT MAXES DRIFTS OVER THE
REGION, BRINGING BROADER SUPPORT. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EARLY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, A HOT AND
ABOVE SEASONAL DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN AS COMPARED TO DAYS PAST.
WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS PORTRAYED BY THE 0-7
DAY QPF CHARTS SHOWING PRECIP FROM OLD MEXICO ACROSS NM AND THEN
INTO COLORADO. OVERALL QPF VALUES RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS CHANCE OF SOME STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY, WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS AS THERE IS SOME WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS
TO PUSH OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP PER LATEST GUIDANCE IN THE MTNS
WILL BE SUNDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL RANGE TO AROUND THE L90S OVER THE RIDGES
(PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON) TO 95-100F FROM CANON CITY TO THE KS
BORDER, MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AND 60S AND 70S MTNS. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
MAIN CONCERN. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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