652
FXUS65 KPUB 182025
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
225 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED HOT WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MOST IMPACTING
THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS COLORADO, WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO, HELPING TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
BY LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE PLAINS, DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS
HAS LED TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK AT LESS THAN 20 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PULSY,
QUICKLY UP AND DOWN. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
TO HALF AN INCH IN DIAMETER, AND GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MOUNTAINS, AND WEAKENING THIS EVENING AS THEY TRACK EAST.
ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
50S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ENERGY ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL GET CAUGHT IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO BY THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
HELP BRING SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR TO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP WITH
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG. AS THE ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS HAVE
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE, EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA. BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND SHEAR 50 MPH. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 90S FOR HIGHS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
RISES TO NEAR 80. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN AS COMPARED TO DAYS PAST.
WEAK MONSOONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS PORTRAYED BY THE 0-7
DAY QPF CHARTS SHOWING PRECIP FROM OLD MEXICO ACROSS NM AND THEN
INTO COLORADO. OVERALL QPF VALUES RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS CHANCE OF SOME STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY, WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS AS THERE IS SOME WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS
TO PUSH OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP PER LATEST GUIDANCE IN THE MTNS
WILL BE SUNDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL RANGE TO AROUND THE L90S OVER THE RIDGES
(PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON) TO 95-100F FROM CANON CITY TO THE KS
BORDER, MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AND 60S AND 70S MTNS. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT ALL SITES, WITH
KALS SEEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. BRIEFLY REDUCED CIGS AND VIS
ARE POSSIBLE, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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