104
FXUS65 KPUB 251713
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE I-25 CORRIDOR, NORTHERN
FREMONT AND TELLER COUNTIES.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO
THE I- 25 CORRIDOR, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASING FLASH
FLOODING RISK.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A
POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
THE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF LAST EVENING'S
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ONGOING DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE,
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS, AND DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME.
THESE CLOUDS AND A COOLER ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN
TODAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN ITEM
OF CONCERN TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN USHER IN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATER TODAY, WITH BACKING LOW/MID LEVELS
AND SOME LEE TROUGHING OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY. THIS
INCREASING ASCENT AND FOCUS RIGHT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THIS FOCUS WILL SHIFT MORE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME MODEL VARIABILITY WITH HOW THE 700MB FLOW WILL EVOLVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A CONTINUED
EASTERLY WIND RIGHT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME
FRAME. THIS SHOULD ASSIST WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING, AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING WON'T LIKELY GO ANYWHERE TODAY, AND EVEN POSSIBLY PUSH
FURTHER TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, SHOULD SEE
CLOUD COVER SCATTER/DIMINISH, WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING
INCREASED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENT OF THE CAPE TODAY, WITH THE HREF AND REFS SHOWING HIGHER
PROBS OF CAPE OF AT LEAST 750 J/KG PUSHING RIGHT INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS AS WELL,
WITH EVEN SOME POCKETS OF CAPE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 1000
J/KG. WHILE THIS IS THE CASE, THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE TALL AND SKINNY
CAPE. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY BUT IF THOSE POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE DO OCCUR, THINK ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY GIVEN
THIS PERSISTENT ASCENT/FOCUS WELL INTO THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH THIS
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. PWATS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY, WITH VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES VERY MUCH POSSIBLE RIGHT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD
FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY, FELT CONFIDENT EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE NORTHERN FREMONT AND TELLER COUNTIES, AND THE SOUTHERN I-
25 CORRIDOR. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND,
WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING LOWERING AS WELL. IT'S QUITE
POSSIBLE FOR A SLOWER TREND DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO. IF THIS IS THE CASE, WILL
NEED TO LOOK INTO POSSIBLE EXTENDING PART OF THE FLOOD WATCH
SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
TUESDAY..
FOR NOW, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON OUR PLAINS, THOUGH FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS OVER AN INCH AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
ON PRE-SATURATED GROUND. IF ANY CLEARING MANAGES TO OCCUR ON
TUESDAY, THOSE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD HELP TO DRAG A FEW
STORMS OFF OF THE TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME THOUGH, MODELS INSIST THAT
OUR PLAINS WILL BE COOL, CLOUD COVERED, AND TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY HOWEVER, MORE
CLEARING LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO PASS
OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL MEAN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR
FLASH FLOODING FOR OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS, AS WELL AS OUR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY TOMORROW, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH,
AND FLASH FLOODING ALL POTENTIAL RISKS. AREAS THAT ARE TYPICALLY
PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY AT RISK ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING
PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR URBAN CENTERS AND AREA
BURN SCARS. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THOUGH, EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR BOTH OUR PLAINS AND OUR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR PLAINS AS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ORGANIZES ITSELF. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN
OVER US AS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH COULD BRING INCREASED
FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL. OVERALL, ALL
THREE DAYS LOOK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS, FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL,
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF A SHIFT BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONALLY TYPICAL PATTERN
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT ON THE PARTICULARS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
KALS: MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR CLOUDS POSSIBLE, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SPREADING INTO THE VALLEY AND OVER THE TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KCOS AND KPUB: PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LEFTOVER FROM THIS MORNING WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY STAYING WITHIN MVFR.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
MID-AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VIS, LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT OR LATER. ONE OR TWO STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT ARE NOT LIKELY, BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW JUST IN CASE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
MANAGE TO FORM, OUTFLOW COULD EXCEED 40 KNOTS OR SO, BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>088.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page