445
FXUS65 KPUB 260523
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. FLASH
FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR, THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A
POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
RAN AN UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST
SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE, BUT RADAR IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DECENT COVERAGE. DID A MIX OF RADAR TREND AND THE HRRR,
FV3 AND NAMNEST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS HIGHLIGHTS
AREAS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION, SOUTH TO THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR. OVERALL, THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES, DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
CELLS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ALSO ADDED SOME
AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS (LAMAR IS DOWN TO 4 MILES), AND THE
FOG WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOZLEY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND ARE NOW MOVING TOWARDS AND OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MULTIPLE OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, THOUGH NO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS HAVE BEEN NOTED AS OF
YET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY OVER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...
LOOKING ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE AND SLOWLY BUILDING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING IN, WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION. PLENTY
OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND, AND MAJORITY OF THE SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS STICKING AROUND OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, IF NOT LONGER. BY MID-MORNING, SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER TERRAIN WILL HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED, STICKING AROUND LONGEST
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GENERALLY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN LARGELY OVERCAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. MAIN IMPACTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS AS WELL AS ANY
LOCATIONS WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MANAGE TO PUSH A FEW
STORMS OFF OF THE TERRAIN, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE
QUITE LOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST, BUT AS OF NOW THEY APPEAR TO
BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND WILL MOSTLY CONTRIBUTE TO RAINFALL TOTALS
AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG I-25.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
TUESDAY..
FOR NOW, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON OUR PLAINS, THOUGH FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS OVER AN INCH AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
ON PRE-SATURATED GROUND. IF ANY CLEARING MANAGES TO OCCUR ON
TUESDAY, THOSE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD HELP TO DRAG A FEW
STORMS OFF OF THE TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME THOUGH, MODELS INSIST THAT
OUR PLAINS WILL BE COOL, CLOUD COVERED, AND TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY HOWEVER, MORE
CLEARING LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO PASS
OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL MEAN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR
FLASH FLOODING FOR OUR MOUNTAIN AREAS, AS WELL AS OUR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY TOMORROW, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH,
AND FLASH FLOODING ALL POTENTIAL RISKS. AREAS THAT ARE TYPICALLY
PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY AT RISK ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING
PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR URBAN CENTERS AND AREA
BURN SCARS. OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THOUGH, EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S FOR BOTH OUR PLAINS AND OUR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR PLAINS AS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ORGANIZES ITSELF. MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN
OVER US AS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL FURTHER AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH COULD BRING INCREASED
FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL. OVERALL, ALL
THREE DAYS LOOK TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS, FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL,
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF A SHIFT BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONALLY TYPICAL PATTERN
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT ON THE PARTICULARS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
KALS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO EALRY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
KCOS AND KPUB...RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KCOS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KPUB AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REDUCED VIS AND CISG TO IFR TO LIFR ARE LIKELY, WITH FOG IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS WHEN IT ISN'T RAINING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22-23Z TIME FRAME, AND PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>088.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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