467
FXUS65 KPUB 261119
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
519 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
- CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS.
- FLOODING CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
GRADUAL RETURN OF WARMER, DRIER WEATHER APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
TODAY - TONIGHT: THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION HEADING
INTO TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE TO THE WEST. THIS FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE RICH AIR OVER THE AREA. WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE, AND FORCING OVER THE TERRAIN, ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES. THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN WEAK FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
AROUND 10-15 MPH, WITH SKIES REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW SEASONAL TREND, WITH THE PLAINS IN
THE 70S, THE VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S, AND THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED, WITH THE PLAINS FALLING INTO THE 50S, THE VALLEYS INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO 50S, AND THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
TOMORROW: MIDWEEK BRINGS A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DAY, WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE, AND TERRAIN
FORCING PERSISTING, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PUSHING ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LIKE MANY OF THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, THE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN CONTINUED WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH
PERSISTING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED, THOUGH
WITH VALUES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WITH THE PLAINS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO 80S, THE VALLEYS IN THE 70S, AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS, COMING TO AN END OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ON THE PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WEDNESDAY, WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING
OVER US THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. PWATS LOOK BE OVER/NEAR 1
INCH FOR THURSDAY AS WELL, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH MUCH OF OUR PLAINS WARMING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WARMING INTO THE 70S.
FRIDAY ONWARDS..
PWATS BEGIN TO DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME GETS SHOVED OFF TO OUR SOUTH INCREMENTALLY. DAILY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE, THOUGH
CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MUCH THE SAME
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ON THE PLAINS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH POTENTIALLY WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
AT KCOS AND KPUB..IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING AFTER 15Z. LIGHT
RAIN, MIST, FOG, AND LOW CEILINGS ARE ALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AT BOTH STATIONS, MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING RAIN AND STORMS, WITH IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KCOS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AT KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR
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