521
FXUS65 KPUB 262011
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
211 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS, STORMS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
- WET, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
- FLOODING CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
GRADUAL RETURN OF WARMER, DRIER WEATHER APPEARING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SLOWLY
PUSHING TO THE EAST. STORMS DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG, THOUGH
SOME HIGHER RAIN-RATES ARE POPPING UP ON RADAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE PLAINS, BUT SHEAR IS
STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING OVER THE PLAINS, DAYTIME HEATING MAY
JUST ALLOW FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT IS STILL LOW. A FEW HIGHER CORES COULD POTENTIALLY
DROP SOME OUTFLOW OVER 40 MPH ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW DOWNSLOPING DETERIORATES STORMS AS WE MOVE LATER IN THE
DAY, BUT CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITHIN
LARGER-SCALE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS OUR AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GIVE US A REPEAT KIND OF
DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING,
PUSHING EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH BETTER
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SETTING IN ALOFT, STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE TERRAIN, INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE
PLAINS. EVEN SO, CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH DUE TO A GENERAL LACK OF SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING. MAIN IMPACT CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, THOUGH LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME SMALL HAIL WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM ARE TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE, SEVERE IMPACTS ARE
NOT LIKELY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE FROM TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S TO NEAR-90
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHILE THE VALLEYS REMAIN IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS, COMING TO AN END OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ON THE PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH THE SAME AS
WEDNESDAY, WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING
OVER US THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. PWATS LOOK BE OVER/NEAR 1
INCH FOR THURSDAY AS WELL, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH MUCH OF OUR PLAINS WARMING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WARMING INTO THE 70S.
FRIDAY ONWARDS..
PWATS BEGIN TO DECREASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME GETS SHOVED OFF TO OUR SOUTH INCREMENTALLY. DAILY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE, THOUGH
CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MUCH THE SAME
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ON THE PLAINS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH POTENTIALLY WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KALS: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, MOVING OVER THE VALLEY A BIT LATER. PASSING SHOWERS WILL
BRING MVFR CIGS, WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL
AND LOWERING THINGS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE. HAVE INCLUDED SEVERAL PROB30 GROUPS BASED ON CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND IMPACTS OVER THE TERMINAL. LOW CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
KCOS AND KPUB: LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL WAVER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KPUB
BEFORE THE MIST FULLY DISSIPATES, BUT LOW IFR-LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA UNTIL
CLOSE TO 05-06Z OR SO. OVERNIGHT, ONCE THE RAIN DISSIPATES, LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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