489
FXUS65 KPUB 271743
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
THURSDAY, AND MAY BRING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA.
- WET WEATHER PERSISTS FRIDAY, WITH STRONG STORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLOW RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER DEVELOPING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. MOISTURE
RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND TERRAIN FORCING
PERSISTING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY, THOUGH MOSTLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH THAT ALL
SAID, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY LESSENS, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GIVEN THE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED SLOW STORM MOTIONS, ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTING ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 MPH,
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, THOUGH STILL BE SEASONAL VALUES, WITH THE PLAINS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO 80S, THE VALLEYS IN THE 70S, AND THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN A MORE
SEASONAL FEELING, WITH THE PLAINS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, THE VALLEYS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MID 30S TO 40S.
TOMORROW: THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE REGION, AND DESPITE A
SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN MOISTURE CONTENT, DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND TERRAIN FORCING CONTINUING,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR, GIVEN EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND
A MODEST COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
DAY. LIKE MANY OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS, WEAK FLOW, SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL MEAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE, GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTING ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. BEYOND
ALL OF THAT, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10 MPH, WITH
SKIES STILL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, GIVEN
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WITH
THE PLAINS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, THE VALLEYS IN THE 70S, AND
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
MANY MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS, AS WEAK UPPER WAVE IS SLOW TO
EXIT THE STATE, AND WILL HOLD ON TO POPS AT MOST LOCATIONS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP AFTER SUNRISE FRI, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, ROLLING ONTO THE PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAPE
(1000-1500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS)
CLIMB A BIT, SUGGESTING SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE PLAINS, AND WHILE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD, A COUPLE LOW END SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SATURDAY ONWARDS..
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SAT AS MAIN
MOIST PLUME SHIFTS SOUTH, AND EXPECT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN
STORMS COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE DAY. BETTER
MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25, AND EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH WITH PWAT VALUES SLOWLY
FALLING, THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESSENING. CONTINUED
DRYING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REDUCE STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALL AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH WE LIKELY WON'T
COMPLETELY END CONVECTION GIVEN WET GROUND AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. POPS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED ALL THREE DAYS, BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO EXTREME HEAT IS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AROUND NOON AND
SPREADING OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED AN PROB30 FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH
THE EARLIEST START TIME AT KALS AT 18Z, AND A BIT LATTER 20-22Z
AT KCOS AND KPUB. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE STRONGER STORMS WITH +TSRA ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PULL EAST OF THE TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH VFR CLOUDINESS PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT. IF RAIN OCCURS AT THE TERMINALS SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT AS
ODDS LOOK TOO LOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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