778
FXUS65 KPUB 281149
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
549 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW, MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLOW RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SITS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THIS THOUGH, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING, AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A COUPLE OF STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS,
WHERE SHEAR AND GREATER INSTABILITY WILL OVERLAP. THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH. HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BEYOND ALL OF THAT, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH
WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND AND LESS THAN 10 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES, WITH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, THE VALLEYS IN THE 70S, AND
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TOMORROW: HEADING INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY OVER THE AREA, WITH RICH MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH TERRAIN
FORCING, AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRST INITIALLY BLOSSOM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, AND THEN
PUSH ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIKE THURSDAY,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS DAY, AND STILL
MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE GREATEST
OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED. STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE EXPECTED HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, PARTLY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10
MPH. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER BELOW SEASONAL DAY IS
ANTICIPATED, WITH THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, THE
VALLEYS IN THE 70S, AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS, AND
WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, COULD BE SOME PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY, THOUGH MANY FORECASTS SHOW A WEAK NORTH
WIND AROUND 12Z, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS RETAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND EXPECT THE USUAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY/MID AFTERNOON,
THEN MOVING E-SE THOUGH THE PLAINS BY EVENING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40
KTS) FOR STRONG STORMS FROM I-25 EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH IF
COOL AIR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS ON THE PLAINS
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, STORMS COULD STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION SUN-TUE, WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH WE'LL LIKELY RECYCLE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE A UPTICK IN STORMS ALONG THE NM BY LATE MON
INTO TUE AS MOISTURE SPREADS BACK NORTH, THOUGH WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA, THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONGER STORMS APPEARS LIMITED. HIGH TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO EXTREME
HEAT IS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN U.S.
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE DEEP TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CO MID-WEEK (WED-ISH), BRINGING COOLER
AIR BACK TO AT LEAST THE PLAINS AND ERN MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A FEW STORMS SLIPPING
EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LATE WED ONTO THU, HELPED ALONG BY
POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY, WITH A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT BOTH KPUB
AND KCOS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WENT VCSH AT KCOS
AND KPUB AFTER 02Z, THOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR -TSRA
DEVELOPMENT, AS MANY CAMS SUGGEST STORMS FORMING/STRENGTHENING
ON THE PLAINS AFTER 02Z AND LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT
KALS, LOW RISK OF A BRIEF WINDY -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DID
NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN/MW
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