725
FXUS65 KPUB 282010
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
210 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW, MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SLOW RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 40 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS MAINTAINING IN THE 50S, THIS WILL RESULT IN 1000-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, ADEQUATE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER CAPE. HAIL UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STORM RISKS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS WITH SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. AS
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT, CAMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
DROPPING IT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CELLS SHOULD BE ELEVATED BUT COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED
STRONG STORM OR TWO GIVEN MUCAPES UP TO 750 J/KG ACCORDING TO HREF.
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG SHOULD WE SEE ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS. MODELS HOLD ON TO QUITE A
BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT, SO THINK THIS WILL BE
VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
FRIDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MORE WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
MAINTENANCE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN MEAN HREF
CAPES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE 40-50 KTS
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL UP
TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS (MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN
TODAY'S) DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
AND PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
-KT
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS, AND
WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, COULD BE SOME PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY, THOUGH MANY FORECASTS SHOW A WEAK NORTH
WIND AROUND 12Z, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE. EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS RETAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND EXPECT THE USUAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY/MID AFTERNOON,
THEN MOVING E-SE THOUGH THE PLAINS BY EVENING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40
KTS) FOR STRONG STORMS FROM I-25 EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH IF
COOL AIR FROM FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS ON THE PLAINS
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, STORMS COULD STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION SUN-TUE, WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH WE'LL LIKELY RECYCLE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE A UPTICK IN STORMS ALONG THE NM BY LATE MON
INTO TUE AS MOISTURE SPREADS BACK NORTH, THOUGH WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA, THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONGER STORMS APPEARS LIMITED. HIGH TEMPS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO EXTREME
HEAT IS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN U.S.
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE DEEP TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH CO MID-WEEK (WED-ISH), BRINGING COOLER
AIR BACK TO AT LEAST THE PLAINS AND ERN MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A FEW STORMS SLIPPING
EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LATE WED ONTO THU, HELPED ALONG BY
POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE KCOS AREA WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS,
ONE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CHANCE IS LOWER AT KPUB SO WILL CARRY VCSH FOR NOW, BUT
GREATEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH TSRA WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS WITH A SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL SHOULD A STRONGER
STORM IMPACT THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE DOMINATED BY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY, BUT BECOME ERRATIC AND CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE SETTLING BACK
FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PREVENT ITS
FORMATION SO HAVE KEPT THIS A SCATTERED LAYER FOR NOW.
KALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BYPASS THE TERMINAL FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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