719
FXUS65 KPUB 110532
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE LATE.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
- DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE LOW CENTER
OVER NORTHERN CA WAS PRODUCING BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS, WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF CO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FOCUS
AREA ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AND
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 1 PM.
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW CENTROID EDGES WEST INTO NORTHERN NV THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO WESTERN KS.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHWEST MTS
AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. HRRR, NAMNEST AND HREF MODELS ARE ALL
INDICATING SPARSE ISOLATED CELLS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT, BUT BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK AND BEST CAPE SITS RIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT AVAILABLE CAPE
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT, SO ANY STORM WITH POTENTIAL STRENGTH
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER, STRETCHING TO BACA CO,
UNTIL 10 PM OR SO. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW AND MOISTURE TAP, SOME
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ALL NIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS,
AND 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE
INCOMING MOISTURE TAP PERSISTS. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND A VORT MAX IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL CAPE
AND BULK SHEAR IS LACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS, SO THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MTS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SPC HAS PAINTED A MARGINAL
AREA FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN SUCH A WAY AND EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACT CONCERNS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, SO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WHILE THE PLAINS
WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. MOORE
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO LINGER OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PERSISTS, ONLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ON THE PLAINS, AND MID 40S OVER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FRIDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD, AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, STRONG, MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS ARE NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUR SAN JUANS, AND FORECAST SKEW TS SHOW SATURATED PROFILES
WITH "LONG, SKINNY" CAPE, INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WPC HAS MUCH OF
MOUNTAINS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL, BUT WILL DECREASE THE
FURTHER EAST WE GO ON FRIDAY AS HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT LOOKS
TO REMAIN FURTHEST WEST. BURN SCARS, URBAN CENTERS, AND TYPICAL
FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE START TO COOL OFF ON FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL AND AROUND 5 TO 8
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SATURDAY..
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH
THEY DO LOOK TO BECOME LESS IN COVERAGE, AND SLIGHTLY MORE TIED TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRY
TO EJECT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER
AIR ALSO LOOKS TO COME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON OUR
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING, THOUGH AT THIS
TIME MOST OF THE DRYLINE CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY ON THE KANSAS SIDE
OF OUR BORDER.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
OUR FLOW ALOFT STAYS A BIT MESSY HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, AS ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND SPIN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS OUR FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY. BUT
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DRAGS IN BETTER MOISTURE
OVER OUR REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING, THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
A FEW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY DRIFTING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE
TERMINALS (MAINLY KALS) ROUGHLY 09Z-14Z. UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH ON THU WILL PROVIDE INCREASED UPWARD
MOTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD AND
EARLIER STARTING CONVECTION AT MANY LOCATIONS. KEPT A PROB30
FOR -TSRA AT KALS AT 19Z, THOUGH AT LEAST A FEW CAMS SHOW STORMS
EVEN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER. ALSO KEPT A PROB30 TO KCOS AND KPUB
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AS SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAIN FEATURE OF STORMS AT THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WINDS,
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 KTS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WANES AFTER
01Z-03Z, WITH A LINGERING VCSH THROUGH THE EVENING AT KALS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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