964
FXUS65 KPUB 111158
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
558 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- SOME STRONGER STORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY MID-
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, AS AN UPPER LOW
AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW, WITH ONE SAID WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. GOES BLENDED TOTAL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS INDICATING PWATS RUNNING 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE ROCKIES AT
THIS TIME. AS OF 1 AM, REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND LEE TROUGHING KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION, AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITHIN THE FLOW, AS WELL AS INCREASING UVV, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD, THROUGH OUT THE DAY, TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HREF DATA SUPPORTS MEAN
CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 30-35KTS ACROSS AREA, WITH DCAPE
RUNNING BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG AREAWIDE, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONG
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD, WERE STORM TRAINING IS MOST LIKELY.
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS
ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORMS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC
FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO
TONIGHT'S READINGS.
FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION, WITH MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. MODEL DATA DOES INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH PROGGED CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
LESS INSTABILITY, UVV AND BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE WILL LEAD TO
A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH, WITH
POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST, WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT MAINLY IN THE 40S TO 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY..
MODELS FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BRING THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE LOW ITSELF BARELY MOVES ON
SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS SEEMS TO SWING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS SETUP
WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, 50S OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND LOW 60S ON OUR EASTERN
PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUING AS WELL. A DRYLINE SETUP ALSO APPEARS
POSSIBLE ON OUR EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL MEAN
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE EAST OF I-25. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE PALMER
DIVIDE, AND THE RATON MESA, AND 80S ELSEWHERE ON OUR PLAINS.
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING THE TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
MEAN OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ON OUR PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..
WE WARM UP AND DRY OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AS ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR SUNDAY, OUR FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING TO ZONAL BY THE END OF
THE DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND THE RATON MESA, AND HIGHS IN THE 80S
ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS. WE WARM UP SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY, AS
OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS,
WITH A FEW 90S LIKELY OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVE VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY EITHER DAY, BUT THERE WILL BE VERY
SLIGHT (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION ON SUNDAY AND OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY ONWARDS..
THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, MAINLY BECAUSE
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD CLUE ON THE TIMING, TRACK, OR
AMPLITUDE OF THIS NEXT NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW,
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
BUT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR MOUNTAINS. WE ALSO LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN TO
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES AFTER ITS PASSAGE TO OUR
NORTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 18Z AT ALL THREE
STATIONS. THE MAIN RISK WITH TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY AND
VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS. GUSTS TO 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EACH
STATION NEAR STORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO WANE AFTER
SUNSET, ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KPUB, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER KALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR
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