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FXUS65 KPUB 151713
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
- A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ARRIVES MID-WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, LEADING
TO A WARM, QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS, WITH 80S TO
NEAR-90 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL ONLY CARRY A FEW CLOUDS,
MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH NO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COOL ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN
THE HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO AVOID THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER FROST HIGHLIGHT.
TUESDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME ALONG WITH THE INCREASING FLOW, GIVING
US CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LARGELY OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY CONSISTENT
WITH TODAY, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..
MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT, ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE LIKELY FOR OUR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MUCH OF OUR PLAINS, WITH THE PIKES PEAK REGION
STRUGGLING TO TO WARM UP OUT OF THE 60S. MODELS KEEP THE LOW NORTH
AND EAST OF US FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR DAY OF
COOLER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WITH NORTHEASTERLY FAVORED
UPSLOPING ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE WET MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. SNOW LEVELS DIP DOWN TO 11,000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MOST
OF OUR PEAKS DON'T LOOK TO SEE MUCH FOR ACTUAL ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PIKES PEAK, WHICH COULD SEE
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR TWO FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND WOULD KEEP RIDGING HELD OFF TO OUR WEST.
NBM TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED INCREMENTALLY, THOUGH IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, THIS FORECASTER THINKS THAT 80S FOR BOTH DAYS WOULD STILL
BE TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THE NBM HAS ALSO BEGUN TO TREND
TOWARDS CONTINUED LOW-END POPS ON THE PLAINS, WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC
GIVEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST, THOUGH FOR NOW THE NBM IS ONLY
REFLECTING THIS FOR THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY WE DO SEEM TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE THE RIDGE, WHETHER THAT BE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY DRY US OUT ON THE PLAINS, AND BRING ABOUT THE RETURN
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL, LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND BACK AND FOURTH BETWEEN MODELS,
HAVE STUCK WITH NBM OUTPUT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES, KPUB, KCOS AND KALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH
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