743
FXUS65 KPUB 160533
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW, BUT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PIKES
PEAK REGION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
- A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ARRIVES MID-WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
CURRENTLY...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE NEARLY CLEAR ALL OVER THE FCST
AREAS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND 50S
AND 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH AND ISOLATED SHOWER/-TSRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS/HIGHER PIKES PEAK REGION, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
OVER THE REGION THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
SHOULD RUN ABOUT 4 TO 8F WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
TOMORROW...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS PUSHING AROUND 90F ALONG THE ARK RVR VALLEY EAST OF
PUEBLO WITH 80S ELSEWHERE AND MAYBE A U70S N EL PASO. INTERIOR
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S WITH 50S AND 60S MTNS.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS N EL PASO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
INITIATE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
\/HODANISH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..
MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT, ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE LIKELY FOR OUR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MUCH OF OUR PLAINS, WITH THE PIKES PEAK REGION
STRUGGLING TO TO WARM UP OUT OF THE 60S. MODELS KEEP THE LOW NORTH
AND EAST OF US FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR DAY OF
COOLER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WITH NORTHEASTERLY FAVORED
UPSLOPING ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE WET MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. SNOW LEVELS DIP DOWN TO 11,000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MOST
OF OUR PEAKS DON'T LOOK TO SEE MUCH FOR ACTUAL ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PIKES PEAK, WHICH COULD SEE
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR TWO FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND WOULD KEEP RIDGING HELD OFF TO OUR WEST.
NBM TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED INCREMENTALLY, THOUGH IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, THIS FORECASTER THINKS THAT 80S FOR BOTH DAYS WOULD STILL
BE TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THE NBM HAS ALSO BEGUN TO TREND
TOWARDS CONTINUED LOW-END POPS ON THE PLAINS, WHICH SEEMS REALISTIC
GIVEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST, THOUGH FOR NOW THE NBM IS ONLY
REFLECTING THIS FOR THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY WE DO SEEM TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE THE RIDGE, WHETHER THAT BE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY DRY US OUT ON THE PLAINS, AND BRING ABOUT THE RETURN
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL, LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND BACK AND FOURTH BETWEEN MODELS,
HAVE STUCK WITH NBM OUTPUT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AN
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED NEAR ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES WITH STORM COVERAGE, LEFT AS PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW. STORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE, LEAVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
WILL HAVE WEAKER WINDS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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