777
FXUS65 KPUB 160925
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
325 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TOUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR
REGION TODAY, COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE WARM AND NEAR SEASONAL VALUES, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO NEAR-90 OVER THE PLAINS, AND 70S OVER THE VALLEYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BEFORE PUSHING EAST QUICKLY AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, TAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT.
AS OF NOW, MAIN IMPACT CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE, AND WITH LOCALIZED
SHEAR ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY, THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS WILL
BE OVER NE COLORADO, WELL OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS.
WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
PRIMARILY PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS, PIKES PEAK REGION, AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
ACTIVITY, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL MAINLY
FIRE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE, PUSHING EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 70S TO NEAR-80 OVER THE PLAINS, AND
60S-70S OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO COLORADO. STILL ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH WITH BEST DYNAMIC LIFT SHIFTING EAST AND
BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WELL SOUTH, SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS BUT ONLY
LIGHT RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SLIGHTLY AS
HEIGHTS/MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAXES A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ANOTHER DAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FRI/SAT, BRINGING BACK DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION, THOUGH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY SNEAK
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SW TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON T-STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS BOTH
FRI/SAT. RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT ON SUN/MON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SLIPS BY TO THE NORTH, KEEPING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, WHILE TEMPS REMAIN ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AN
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED NEAR ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES WITH STORM COVERAGE, LEFT AS PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW. STORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE, LEAVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
WILL HAVE WEAKER WINDS AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page