745
FXUS65 KPUB 172125
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- MOISTURE BEGINS TO DWINDLE ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- WARMER AND DRIER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH JUST SOME VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. WHILE COVERAGE HAS
REMAINED ISOLATED, INTENSITY HAS QUICKLY INCREASED OVER THE LAST
30 MINUTES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING, AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE DEEP
TROUGH IN PLACE. DO ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, TIED CLOSER TO THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND RATON MESA WHERE BACKING FLOW IS SUPPORTING DEEP
UPSLOPE. WHILE SOME MIXING HAS OCCURRED, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE AND IS SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG,
WITH EVEN SOME POCKETS OF VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING MID FLOW AND
INCREASING SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 TO 45 KT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STILL ANTICIPATE THE
STRONGEST STORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING, DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AND RATON MESA WILL CONTINUE BUT ALSO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
ADDITIONAL ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK
INCREASE IN ASCENT ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REALLY SHOWING THIS RAPID INCREASE IN OMEGA THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW WITH INCREASING/BACKING
SURFACE FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN BULK SHEAR.
AGAIN, WITH THIS SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND NOW INCREASED ASCENT,
EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER
THE PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE HIGHER FURTHER TO THE
EAST AND WITH BULK SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, THINK
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER WILL HAVE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE AND
HAIL UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED
STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE FOR A TORNADO
OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LOWER
BY LATE THIS EVENING, THOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY, WITH
DRYING THE TREND. THIS WILL SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
UPPER LOW DEPARTS AND RIDGE BUILDS ON FRIDAY, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SOME ISOLATED/WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NM BORDER. MAIN CHANGE TO FRIDAY'S
FORECAST WAS TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGF AT MANY
LOCATIONS, AS NBM LOOKED TOO COOL GIVEN WARMER MORE RECENT 00Z
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT OVER THE
WEEKEND, ALLOWING LEFTOVER MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
DRIFT INTO THE STATE, WHICH WILL IN TURN DRIVE AN INCREASE IN
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION BOTH SAT/SUN. STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE
LOOK WEAK/ISOLATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MAINLY LIGHTING,
WIND AND LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WITH MOST ACTIVITY.
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING WARM
WEATHER IN PLACE WHILE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DECREASE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT BY MID-WEEK AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY CRESTS THE RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.,
THOUGH MODEL SPREAD ON DETAILS/TIMING ARE RATHER LARGE AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
ACTIVE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD ANTICIPATED MAINLY OVER COS AND
PUB, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS COS. RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS TIME THOUGH, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALS
TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW, AS PRECIP AND CEILING DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS.
WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR BY THE MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. THIS WILL IMPACT
COS FIRST AND DID GO AHEAD AND SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THIS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
OCCURRENCE AT COS, DID ADJUST THE TAF, ADDING A TEMPO GROUP THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE THE NEED TO INDICATE HIGHER CONFIDENCE,
POSSIBLY ADDING MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS LATER. FOR PUB, DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PROB30 GROUP GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING AND HOW THIS PRECIP MAY EVOLVE LATER TODAY INTO THE
EVENING IN THIS LOCATION. DO FEEL THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT DIDN'T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LASTLY, KEPT PRECIP IN THE TAFS THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP MAY CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME, AND SO HAVE OPTED TO ADD ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OR THUNDER
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page