651
FXUS65 KPUB 112037
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
237 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES SUNDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT.
- UNSETTLED WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR LATE WEEK SYSTEMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025
WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS TODAY, WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING TO MOSTLY
SPRINKLES AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH
IF ANY LIGHTNING OVER THE AREA, THOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF OVER 2 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS) WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN MINERAL
COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE REMAINED LOW ENOUGH (0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES PER HR) TO KEEP ANY FLOOD RISK LOW SO FAR ON OUR SIDE OF
THE DIVIDE, THOUGH MANY SMALLER STREAMS ARE LIKELY
NEAR/APPROACHING BANKFULL OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN.
OVERNIGHT, BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ALREADY ALONG THE
CO/UT BORDER AT MID-AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT DRYING TO GRADUALLY
WORK EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE TONIGHT.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE OR 2 OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
(ONE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS ANOTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT) ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS, LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH PRODUCT EXPIRING
12Z (6 AM MDT) SUN MORNING.
RAIN DECREASES QUICKLY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE DECREASES AND
UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST, LEAVING JUST A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS BY MIDDAY. DRY ELSEWHERE, WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. LATE AFTERNOON FRONTAL TIMING AND A LACK OF MUCH
CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE MAXES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
EARLY IN THE WEEK, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE
TEXAS REGION. THEN FOR LATE WEEK, THE TROUGHING TO THE WEST
WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH (60-70%) IN THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THOUGH THERE
REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EMBEDDED WAVES AND
TROUGHING LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE, LOWERING
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOME. REGARDLESS THOUGH,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY ELEVATED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH ON AND OFF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED, AND
PERIODS OF SPILL OVER ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME, WHEN A NORTHWARD SURGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.
OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDWEEK, WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MONDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY, WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION BEHIND THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, "ROLLERCOASTER" TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SLOW
WARMING HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN
PUSHES OVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025
AT KALS, PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVES OF
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH EVEN A BRIEF -TSRA POSSIBLE
20-24Z AS STRONGER LIFT CROSSES THE VALLEY. PRECIP FADES AWAY
THIS EVENING, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING STARTING AROUND 02Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE S-SW THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KTS LIKELY.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS. VCSH AND A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 23Z, THOUGH
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
VFR CIGS UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCES END THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL KEEP A S-SW COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY, THEN
LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS DEVELOP AFTER 02Z-03Z, CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ067-068.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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