341
FXUS65 KPUB 121446
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
846 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS, GIVING WAY TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR
SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR PLAINS THIS EVENING, BRINGING
GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS MOUNTAIN AND TUESDAY, WITH 1-3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL LIQUID.
- FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAN JUANS FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS
STARTING AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
PWATS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECASTED TO BE 200-300% OF NORMAL FOR
THIS AREA. 2-3" OF ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE PER GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS. \/HODANISH
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS
MORNING, ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE
12,000FT ELEVATION. AREA WEBCAMS SHOW WET ROADS, EVEN FOR WOLF CREEK
PASS, AS OF 2AM. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO BE
STICKING AT THIS TIME, THOUGH VEGETATION ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD
SEEMS TO BE SNOW COVERED. RAIN AND SNOW HAVE MADE THEIR WAY BACK
INTO THE SANGRES THIS HOUR AS WELL, AND LOOK TO BEGIN AGAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AS WELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE PLAINS.
WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. USAFA
HAD A 35KT GUST LAST HOUR, AND TRINIDAD IS STILL REPORTING 26KT
GUSTS THIS HOUR AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 50S AND 60S. LEADVILLE IS
37, AND LAMAR IS 68. DEWPOINTS ARE RANGING FROM LOW 30S TO MID 50S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM FOR PORTIONS OF
CONEJOS, MINERAL, AND RIO GRANDE COUNTIES. OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE EASTERN SAN JUANS IS SET TO EXPIRE AT THE SAME TIME.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH, ALLOWING US TO WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ONCE AGAIN UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MUCH OF OUR PLAINS WILL SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S, WITH 70S FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION, AND 60S FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH WINDS WEAKENING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO OUR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. MODELS BRING
PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE TONIGHT, AND BACK
INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT THAN
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL MEAN
NEAR FREEZING LOWS FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S
ON THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
MONDAY: ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. SYNOPTICALLY, SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE NO MAJOR FORCING IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS PATTERN, OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PERSIST. ALONG WITH ALL OF
THAT, AN INCREASED PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL START TO PUSH UP TOWARDS
THE AREA. WITH THE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING MOISTURE,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND ORIENTATION INTO THE TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH (70-80%) IN ANOTHER 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF QPF IN THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS GIVEN STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE THOUGH, LESSER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. SNOW LEVELS WILL
AGAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, AROUND AND ABOVE 12,500FT, SO MOST OF
THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH A SLUSHY BIT
OF SNOWFALL ALONG THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS IS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AND HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS FROM THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE SNOWFALL MAY
LIMIT THIS OVERALL THREAT WHEN COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AS THEY PUSH OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, RELATIVELY
LIGHTS WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE COOL THANKS TO
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHING AND RIDGING, WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING PERSISTING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND ADVECTING OVER THE REGION,
WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THE FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE STILL ALONG THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND ORIENTATION. LIKE MONDAY, CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH (70-80%) IN AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY INTO MID TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE THOUGH, AND FOR LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LESSER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. SNOW
LEVELS WILL ALSO AGAIN REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, AROUND AND ABOVE
12,500FT, SO MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SLUSHY SNOW ALONG THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GIVEN
THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AND HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS FROM THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MID TUESDAY, THOUGH LIKE MONDAY, THE SNOWFALL WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THIS THREAT SOME WHEN COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
BEYOND ALL OF THAT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AS THEY PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST OFF OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FOR THE PLAINS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE AND PEAK LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID TUESDAY, AS A VORT MAX
EJECTS OVER THE AREA, HELPING TO SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE, WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD THE TROUGHING AS IT
STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FOR THE PLAINS, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MANY.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF
THE NEXT WEEKEND, A PATTERN CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH WITH
PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING. THE TROUGHING THAT STAYED TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL FINALLY START TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70%) IN THIS
PATTERN CHANGE GIVEN STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, FORCING WILL INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES
OVER, THOUGH WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH
EASTWARD. WHILE FORCING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, SHOWER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN AREAWIDE GIVEN THE DRIER AIR. STILL THOUGH,
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FORCING WILL BE
GREATEST. OUTSIDE OF THAT, PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A
DROP DOWN BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES IS EXPECTED AS THE
TROUGHING PUSHES OVER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES,
WITH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KCOS
AS STRONGER WESTERLIES CONTINUE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH BOTH STATIONS THIS EVENING, BRINGING STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 22KT, ALONG WITH MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DOWN TO AROUND 4,000FT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE
FOR MVFR CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH STATIONS GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE WIND DIRECTION, THOUGH CHANCES WERE TOO LOW (LESS THAN 30%)
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
INSUFFICIENT.
FOR KALS..MIST AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM AROUND 14Z
ONWARDS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS AND LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ067-068.
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR
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