070
FXUS65 KPUB 130917
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
317 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIFE THREATENING FLOODING AND WATER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE EASTERN SAN JUANS TODAY, WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
CURRENTLY..
OUR POST FRONTAL WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE'RE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ON THE
PLAINS AS OF 2 AM. DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH DRIER ON THE PLAINS AS WELL,
WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION, 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS, AND 30S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THOUGH, AND A DEWPOINT READING OF 37 WAS OBSERVED THIS
HOUR AT KPSO IN PAGOSA SPRINGS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. MRMS SHOWS THE
BEGINNINGS OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
FOR NOW, NO RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE LINE
THIS MORNING.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENTIRELY
RELATED TO FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SAN JUANS. THIS AREA SAW OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
ALREADY HAS SATURATED SOILS, FULL WATERWAYS, AND POTENTIALLY
WEAKENED STRUCTURES FROM FAST MOVING WATER RESULTING FROM THE
WEEKEND'S EVENTS. THE ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT IS FORECAST
TO FALL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING
FLOODING, ROAD WASHOUTS, DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE, ROCK, MUD, OR
DEBRIS SLIDES ON ROADWAYS, OR FAST MOVING WATER THROUGH WATERFRONT
PARKS AND CAMPGROUNDS IN NEARBY CREEKS, STREAMS, TRIBUTARIES, AND
RIVERS. HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD AVOID WATERWAYS TODAY, AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, AS FLOODING AND EVACUATION CAN BE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PLEASE HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE LIFE
SAVING FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT IF YOU ARE IN THIS AREA, AND
NEVER DRIVE THROUGH MOVING WATER!
MODELS KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FROM AROUND 6AM THIS MORNING
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS AND MOST FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND CAPE PROFILES FOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. RAIN RATES DON'T LOOK TO TAPER
OFF UNTIL AFTER 10 PM OR SO THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
HANGING OUT DOWN AROUND 10,000FT, AND WOLF CREEK PASS ACTUALLY
REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WARM, MOIST,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES, SNOW-LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP UP TO
AROUND 13,000FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING
AS RAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP THOSE LOWER SNOW-LEVELS AROUND LONGER THOUGH,
AND COULD SEE AROUND 3-5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PEAKS ABOVE 9,000FT. THE SANGRES AND THE REST OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
ALL HAVE DECENT RAIN AND SNOW (ABOVE 10,000FT) CHANCES AS WELL,
THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL OUTSIDE OF THE SAN JUANS.
RAIN CHANCES SNEAK INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING, AND THOUGH BEST CHANCES WITH STAY WEST OF US,
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL.
OUTSIDE OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES, EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
THE PLAINS TODAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S OVER THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FOR THE
REST OF THE PLAINS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY WINDS
ARE LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TODAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 40S FOR BOTH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
TUESDAY: FOR TUESDAY, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE NO MAJOR FORCING IS EXPECTED, OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. ALONG
WITH THAT, THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH THE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND MOISTURE,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
THIS PATTERN WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM, AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
HOVER AROUND AND ABOVE 12,000FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO MOST
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SLUSHY SNOW ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THEY PUSH TO NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR THE PLAINS, POCKETS OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AS A WEAK WAVE WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST, BRINGING A MINOR BOOST TO FORCING AND SUPPORT FOR THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH
BREEZY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND VALLEYS. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY STARTS A SHORT
LIVED WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES ACROSS THE PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER
REMAINS, THOUGH WITH A PATTERN CHANGE STARTING TO TAKE PLACE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO, THOUGH THE TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL START ITS PUSH EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE MAJOR FORCING WILL STAY FURTHER WEST,
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PERSIST. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, HOWEVER, DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, LESSENING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, SHOWERS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH MUCH LESS IN COVERAGE AND MORE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALONG WITH THAT, A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
GIVEN INCREASING BULK SHEAR DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND
GUSTY AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AGAIN
PUSH OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF
THAT, BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REGION AS FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES DURING
MIDWEEK CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES, THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWN TREND FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
PUSH OVER THE REGION, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN FORCING, THOUGH WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE INITIAL
EASTWARD PUSH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH (70-80%) IN THIS
PATTERN CHANGE GIVEN PERSISTENT STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IN HOW INDIVIDUAL
WAVES WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE, LOWERING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE A TAD. WITH THAT ALL SAID THOUGH, MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN PERSISTENT OROGRAPHIC
FORCING, THOUGH MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE GIVEN THE DRIER AIR. AS
FOR THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL, THOUGH WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE.
BEYOND ALL OF THAT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE, WITH BREEZY
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, A DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE UNSETTLED PUSHES OVER AND FILTERS COLDER AIR INTO
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
AT KALS, VFR OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING
THE DAY MON, ALONG WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPS MON AFTERNOON, WITH A PROB30 AND
POTENTIALLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AT 20Z. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AFTER 00Z, WITH MVFR VIS LIKELY. LIGHT
S-SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SLY ON MON, WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KTS AFTER 18Z, THEN DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.
AT KCOS AND KPUB, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS
(BKN070-080) OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. E-NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOMING MORE SELY MON
MORNING. SE WINDS THEN INCREASE MON AFTERNOON, WITH FEW GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT KCOS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ067-068.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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