654
FXUS65 KPUB 132008
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
208 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR THE SAN JUANS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.
- BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ON PLAINS (MAINLY FAR SE PLAINS) WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
- SOME SNOW HIGHEST NOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- 15 TO 20F WARMER TOMORROW.
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
CURRENTLY...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO IMPINGE INTO THE SAN JUANS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAKS NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. PER LATEST OBS, WOLF CREEK HAS RECEIVED OVER
AN INCH OF LIQUID SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING, AND THIS WET PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF LIQUID TO FALL OVER THE SOUTH AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS. PWATS OVER THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FROM 200 TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. AS OF
2 PM, NEARLY 1500 JS OF CAPE WERE NOTED OVER SW CO, AND THIS AIRMASS
WAS CREEPING NORTHEASTWARD. BASED ON THIS, CURRENT FLOOD WATCHES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TIME TOMORROW.
SNOW DID FALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AM AS MONARCH PASS WAS
SNOW COVERED, AND QUITE A FEW OF THE OBSERVATION SITES ABOVE 8000
FEET REPORTED SNOW. PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NOW
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
AS FOR THE PLAINS, THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS MAY SEE SOME
PRECIP, THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, MAIN EAST OF LINE FROM LAMAR TO KIM.
COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 80 FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND
NEAR 70 OVER THE LARGER VALLEYS.
BY LATER TOMORROW, THE ONLY REMAINING CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. ALL OTHER AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER
REMAINS, THOUGH WITH A PATTERN CHANGE STARTING TO TAKE PLACE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO, THOUGH THE TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL START ITS PUSH EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE MAJOR FORCING WILL STAY FURTHER WEST,
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PERSIST. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE PLUME
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, HOWEVER, DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, LESSENING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, SHOWERS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH MUCH LESS IN COVERAGE AND MORE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALONG WITH THAT, A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
GIVEN INCREASING BULK SHEAR DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND
GUSTY AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE VALLEYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS AGAIN
PUSH OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF
THAT, BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REGION AS FLOW
ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES DURING
MIDWEEK CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES, THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWN TREND FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
PUSH OVER THE REGION, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN FORCING, THOUGH WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE INITIAL
EASTWARD PUSH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH (70-80%) IN THIS
PATTERN CHANGE GIVEN PERSISTENT STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER IN HOW INDIVIDUAL
WAVES WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE, LOWERING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE A TAD. WITH THAT ALL SAID THOUGH, MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN PERSISTENT OROGRAPHIC
FORCING, THOUGH MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE GIVEN THE DRIER AIR. AS
FOR THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL, THOUGH WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE.
BEYOND ALL OF THAT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE, WITH BREEZY
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, A DROP BACK DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE UNSETTLED PUSHES OVER AND FILTERS COLDER AIR INTO
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
KALS...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
KCOS AND KPUB...
VFR THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING, EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TOWARDS
NOONTIME.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COZ067-068.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH
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