097
FXUS65 KPUB 152325
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
525 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY,
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR FLOODING OVER THE SAN JUANS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON THURSDAY, FINALLY DRYING OUT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.
- DRY AND COOLER WITH FROST AND FREEZES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SE PLAINS SAT AND SUN
MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WHICH TRAVERSED THIS FLOW EARLIER TODAY DID SUPPORT
HIGHER INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING ENERGY, WE SINCE SEEN
INTENSITY LOWER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH LACKING LOW/MID LEVEL FOCUS HAS KEPT MOST AREAS DRY.
THESE TRENDS WILL HOLD FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS, BUT AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND UPPER JET SWINGS
THROUGH, SHOULD SEE ASCENT AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS INCREASING ASCENT, SBCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG BISECTING SOUTHERN COLORADO, AND WITH HIGH
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-50KT, THINK THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING TIME
FRAME.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THIS RISK DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
WEST OF I-25, WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING-PONG BALLS STILL THE MAIN HAZARDS. WHILE STILL
CAN'T RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO OVER ALL THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY,
THINK THIS RISK WILL BE LOWERING DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE LIKELY INCREASING
INTENSITY STILL TO COME. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK AS IF THE MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO FOCUS MORE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SO, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THIS WATCH
COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY, FROM ITS CURRENT MIDNIGHT END TIME.
MOVING FORWARD MORE INTO THE EVENING, THERE DOES REMAIN A
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE I- 25 CORRIDOR. TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LACKING LOW/MID LEVEL FOCUS IS CHANGING AND
MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING, WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING LEE TROUGHING OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING, AND WITH SHORT
TERM CAMS BRINGING RETURNS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BY THIS TIME
FRAME, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID EVENING, AGAIN KEEPING THE RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IN PLACE. RISK SHOULD LOWER AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME, AS INSTABILITY LOWERS AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION.
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
WITH A DRYING AND COOLING TREND CONTINUING. WHILE THIS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE STILL
LIKELY. DID RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF
THE DRIER AIR, DID LOWER DEWPOINTS, WHICH IS CONTINUING CRITICAL
RH VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL KEEP
AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK IN THIS LOCATION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT. WITH LACKING CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS, THINK THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD CHANGE,
HOWEVER, AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER TRENDS.
LASTLY, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS DO LOOK TO LINGER OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON THURSDAY, AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RISKS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOOKING TO BE MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED CLOSER TO THE CO AND KS BORDER. AT THIS TIME,
HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LA
JUNTA TO KIM, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO KS BY MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES, IT WILL BE A CRISP MORNING ON FRI, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WHERE WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PLAINS BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
WHERE A FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS DECOUPLE QUICKLY ENOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
THE PALMER AND PERHAPS THE RATON RIDGES COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST
OR A LIGHT FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES UP TO 30
PERCENT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS TO STAY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. ODDS INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING FOR
A FROST OR FREEZE WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50% ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EXCEPT PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES. FROST OR
FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BOTH NIGHTS, BUT
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WARM FOR SUN THEN DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MESSY PATTERN OF HARD TO TIME TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL AREAS. OPERATIONAL GFS
SEEMS THE OUTLIER OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AS IT IS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT PHASES NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND MOVES IT
ACROSS CO MON NIGHT/TUE. EC AND CANADIAN FAVOR A FASTER NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WITH LESS PHASING. GEFS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE EC,
EPS AND CANADIAN SUITE WHICH SUGGESTS A QUICKER SYSTEM, AND MORE
OF A COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WE MAY BE
FLIRTING WITH MORE FROSTS AND LIGHT FREEZES FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS, AND A MORE GRADUAL INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW BY MID WEEK. -KT
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
KALS: GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
NOW AND ABOUT 05Z. GUSTS WILL APPROACH 35-45 KNOTS AT TIMES, WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE NEAR PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL
BE MOVING QUICKLY TONIGHT, SO ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINAL WILL
BE GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED. MVFR CLOUDS CEILINGS WILL LAST INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE VFR RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS, BECOMING GUSTY IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
KCOS: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MOVING
OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT
03-07Z. SCATTERED AND QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF STORMS ONLY IMPROVES
CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO PUT IN AS PROB30 FOR NOW. IF STORMS MOVE CLOSE
TO THE TERMINAL, WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WITH BRIEF RAIN
AND THUNDER, BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS RAISING THURSDAY MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON, SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MOVE IN.
KPUB: VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSING BY THE TERMINAL AROUND 05-09Z. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS 35-40 KNOTS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN,
AS WELL AS THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AS PROB30 GROUP. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THURSDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ067-068.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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