639
FXUS65 KPUB 172009
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME WIND COULD LEAD TO VERY ISOLATED FROST TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
- DRY, BREEZY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
WHILE SOMEWHAT BRISK W-SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AS THE UPPER LOW
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS COLORADO FROM THE NE TO THE SW.
COOLER TODAY POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH TEMPS AS OF 1 PM IN THE 50S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60Z TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW
DIRECTION AND REMAIN BRISK. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT ANY INCREASED WINDS SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED, AND POCKETS OF FROST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE PLAINS.
TOMORROW...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING A QUICK-MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY, BRUSHING ACROSS
NORTHERN CO. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY, BUT A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY, PRODUCING BRISK NORTHWEST-
NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLAN ON ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH
CONTINUED LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
MAIN CHANGES ARE WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FILLING IN
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
COME IN COOLER, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE PLAINS WILL FALL TO
NEAR FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS, AND WE MAY NEED FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS IF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER, OR REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND EXPOSED HOSES AND
PIPES MAY WANT TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
UPDATED TO ADD - MODELS CONTINUE TO COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING, SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
FROM 10 PM SAT TO 9 AM SUN. FREMONT COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY, BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE THAT DECISION.
THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WYOMING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO STAY MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF OUR WARNING AREA. WESTERLY AFTERNOON
MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN GAP FLOW AREAS. OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, INTO THE WET MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS HAS A FEW 50 KT FLAGS AT 700 MB, BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS
STRONG AND IS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THAT BEING SAID, AN ISOLATED
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST ON MONDAY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH MOSTLY 70S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, MAINLY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS WEAKENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
REMAIN MILD, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SAN JUAN RANGE, AS FLOW ALOFT SWITCHING SOUTHWESTERLY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS THE
FASTEST SOLUTION, WITH A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SYSTEM. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE A BIT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A FEW POSSIBLE MOVING INTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO COOL ON THE PLAINS,
HOWEVER, NBM GUIDANCE IS WARM, AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WE
MOVE FORWARD IN TIME. MOZLEY
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND
KALS. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE DIURNAL IN DIRECTION AND
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS, THOUGH FOR KCOS AND KPUB WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE N-NW AND INCREASE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH IN THE 15Z-
17Z TIME FRAME TOMORROW MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
COZ084>089-093-095>098.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE/MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE
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