048
FXUS65 KPUB 191444
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
844 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY, WITH INCREASING WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
- HIGH WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY.
- SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR EXPIRATION OF THE FREEZE
WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE PLAINS
DROPPED TO BELOW FREEZING FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND IN SOME CASES HIT A HARD FREEZE, SO FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MAY BE THE LAST FREEZE HIGHLIGHT OF THE
SEASON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD, WITH STRONG WINDS AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED WHICH MIGHT PUT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN JEOPARDY.
MOORE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CURRENTLY..
TEMPERATURES ARE DIPPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DEPARTING
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO OUR EAST. AS OF 2 AM, MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ARE AROUND OR BELOW 32F ALREADY, WITH
TRINIDAD AND SPRINGFIELD ALREADY AT 34F AS WELL. CANON CITY AND MUCH
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY ARE ALSO AROUND 35F THIS
HOUR. WINDS HAVE DIED OFF ON THE PLAINS WHICH HAVE AIDED IN OUR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH SOME TEENS COMING IN UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND OUR PLAINS, BUT WE'LL WARM UP QUICKLY AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AND ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP US TO
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS FROM WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY
BY SEVERAL DEGREES, WHICH WILL MEAN HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND FEW
LOW 80S FOR MANY OF US. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS CAN ALSO EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN INCREASING WEST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH OUR GAP FLOWS, WHERE GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID-TEENS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FAR EASTERN FREMONT, WESTERN PUEBLO, AND HUERFANO
COUNTIES, WHERE GAP FLOWS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH, OR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH, TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH THE EARLY PIECES OF THE
STRONGEST JET SUPPORT COMING IN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. CONTINUED WEST
WINDS AND MIXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MUCH
OF OUR PLAINS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BANANA BELT UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MID TO
LATE WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EJECTION OF
THE UPPER LOW, NOW ON FRIDAY.
MONDAY...A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND HUERFANO COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD DURING THE
MORNING WITH DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL. GUSTS UP HIGH COULD TOP
75 MPH, WHILE AREAS OVER HUERFANO COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH. THE FV3 IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DUCTING WINDS DOWN. THE ARW
IS A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE, BUT STILL HAS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. UP NORTH, MORE FORWARD SHEAR IS
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THERE COULD BE
A FEW BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, MAINLY IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN CHANGE FOR MONDAY IS THE FRONTAL TIMING, WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SLOWER, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEADING TO
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL, THAT
WILL LIKELY LIMIT WESTERLY MIXING AND DRYING OF AIR. OPTED TO
NOT UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH, AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
LOOK AT THE TRENDS. THE FASTER FRONT WILL ALSO IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON MONDAY WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING, AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS AND EXPOSED PIPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY, THEN WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS A SLOWING DOWN OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD IT EXITING THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWLY TAKES THE UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS
ON FRIDAY. NBM GUIDANCE IS ALSO STARTING TO COOL TEMPERATURES
OFF DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND AGAIN COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SPREADING EAST ON THURSDAY. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH, MAINLY ABOVE 9 KFT, WHERE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE PLAINS, PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY,
AND REMAINING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL EJECT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY,
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
MOZLEY
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 22KT
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THIS EVENING. A
SHIFT TOWARDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT KALS, WITH GUSTS TO 22KT PICKING BACK
UP NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, WITH FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN LATER IN THE FORECAST. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ074-075-087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ222-226>231-234.
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...EHR
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