504
FXUS65 KPUB 200527
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY.
- FREEZE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING.
- SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CURRENTLY...BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AS
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST,
MAKING WAY FOR AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY GAINING STRENGTH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AFTER A COLD
START THIS MORNING, TEMPS AS OF 2 PM HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE PLAINS.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ARE GUSTY AND OUT OF THE W-NW, WHILE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH.
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE
CORE OF THE UPPER JET STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING, INITIALLY MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
BUT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES, AS WELL AS HUERFANO COUNTY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
WALSENBURG WHERE THE TOPOGRAPHY AIDS IN GUSTINESS. INHERITED
HIGH WIND WATCH HAD A TIME RANGE OF 2 AM TO 9 AM WHICH LOOKS
GOOD SO WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED TO A WARNING, AND THE TIME
WINDOW WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE 4 AM TO 8 AM.
AGAIN, ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN
MTS, BUT THE STRONGEST CRITERIA-ACHIEVING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH. PLAN ON MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE ENHANCED
WINDS KEEPING THINGS WELL- MIXED, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE PLAINS.
TOMORROW...UPPER TROUGH CROSSES EAST ACROSS WY AND CO RATHER
QUICKLY, WITH BRISK BUT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTLING IN
ACROSS THE MTS WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT RUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
SWITCHING FROM GUSTY W-SW TO NW, THEN FINALLY N AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, LEADING TO NE. THE FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
INTRODUCES SOME COMPLEXITY TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AND GIVEN
HOW POTENTIALLY STRONG THE WIND GUSTS COULD BE, DECIDED TO JUST
GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AS WELL AS THE
SPC FIRE DESK SUPPORTS THIS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MID TO
LATE WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EJECTION OF
THE UPPER LOW, NOW ON FRIDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON MONDAY WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING, AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS AND EXPOSED PIPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY, THEN WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS A SLOWING DOWN OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD IT EXITING THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWLY TAKES THE UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS
ON FRIDAY. NBM GUIDANCE IS ALSO STARTING TO COOL TEMPERATURES
OFF DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND AGAIN COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SPREADING EAST ON THURSDAY. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH, MAINLY ABOVE 9 KFT, WHERE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE PLAINS, PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE GUSTY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY,
AND REMAINING BREEZY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL EJECT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY,
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT BOTH STATIONS. BOTH
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS MIX BACK
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER 13Z OR SO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT TIME,
EXPECTED INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT EARLY IN
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY MORE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE
AT BOTH STATIONS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
SWITCHING AROUND NORTHERLY BY 19Z OR SO. GUSTS TO 22KT ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH
EASTERLY WINDS SHOOTING THROUGH THE GAP EAST OF STATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ074-075-087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ222-
226>231-234.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...EHR
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