885
FXUS65 KPUB 201119
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
519 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SANGRES EASTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING.
- RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS, BUT VERY DRY AND WINDY WILL ALLOW FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS MOST PLAINS AND FREMONT COUNTY TODAY.
- FREEZING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN PLAINS (SEE DETAILS BELOW)
- BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WILL BE FRI/SAT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
NUMEROUS CONCERNS THIS FCST. FIRST, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES THIS MORNING. MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH OF LA VETA PASS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES. IT IS THIS AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 70 TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES. THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY MID MORNING. AS
OF 2 AM THIS MORNING, NUMEROUS AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN MTN REGION
WERE GUSTING IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE, WITH WESTON COMING IN
WITH 62 MPH.
THE 2ND CONCERN WILL BE RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER A GOOD PART OF
THE REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER AS A
COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING (WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE U60S TO L70S PLAINS), IT WILL BE WINDY ON THE
PLAINS AND RH VALUES WILL DRIP INTO THE 10-15% RANGE OVER MOST
OF THE PLAINS. THESE LOW RH VALUES, COMBINED WITH WINDS 30 TO 45
MPH, WILL ALLOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITONS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. PLEASE NOTE COUNTIES ALONG US50 EAST OF PUEBLO WERE
ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NEXT CONCERN IS COLD TEMPS TONIGHT. FOR NOW I HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NM BORDER. COUNTIES NORTH
OF THIS REGION *LIKELY* HAD A HARD FREEZE THE OTHER NIGHT AS MOST
HAD MIN TEMPS IN THE 27-28F RANGE, HOWEVER WE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR
CLIMATE SPECIALIST TO COME IN LATER THIS MORNING TO MAKE THAT
DETERMINATION AND DECIDE IF THESE COUNTIES REACHED THE DEFINITION OF
A HARD FREEZE. IF IT IS DECIDED THAT THESE COUNTIES DID NOT REACH
HARD FREEZE CRITERIA, THEN A FREEZE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED
LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE US50 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD. ANOTHER REGION OF CONCERN IS EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY, AS
THIS AREA LIKELY DID NOT RECEIVE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS THE
OTHER DAY, AND MAY NOT RECEIVE A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE REGION IS WELL PAST ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
FIRST FREEZE AND THE GROWING SEASON HAS LIKELY ENDED OVER THE
AREA.
OTHERWISE...
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY MOST AREAS. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE IN TEH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE PLAINS AND MID 60S LARGER VALLEYS. THE STRONG WINDS
OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES SHOULD DECREASE BY
MID MORNING. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE U20S TO M30S ACROSS
THE PLAINS. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
NICE CALM WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A WARM TROUGH/SMALL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IN
THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
THE SYSTEM IS WARM, SO MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER BEING
POSSIBLE DURING THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY, STRONGER ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND COOLER AIR ALONG WITH PRECIP OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE MTNS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER AIR IS LIKELY HEADING TOWARD OUR AREA
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KCOS, BUT
WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING.
KCOS AND KPUB WILL SEE GUSTS LATE THIS AM IN THE 30 TO 40 KNT
RANGE, GRADUALLY DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE PRIOR TO SUNSET. OTHERWISE,
VFR ANTICIPATED AT KCOS, KPUB AND KALS THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ074-075-
087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ222-226>232-234>236.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ087-088-
094-099.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
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