847
FXUS65 KPUB 210011
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
611 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
DIURNAL MIXING STOPS, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES ALSO EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES DROP HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THIS, THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
CURRENTLY...UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO FILTER BACK WEST TOWARDS THE MTS. EVEN
WITH THE COOLER AIR DRIVING THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS WERE PRODUCING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN SPOTTY, BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS AND THE FACT
THAT THE WARNING IS ALREADY IN PLACE, PLAN ON ALLOWING THE WARNING
TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPS AS OF 1 PM HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THOUGH TEMPS
THERE ARE NOW HOVERING OR GRADUALLY COOLING.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SW AND FOUR CORNERS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH EXITS
THE REGION. DECREASING WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR HUERFANO, LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES TONIGHT
FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM, AND DECIDED TO ADD ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY. FREMONT COUNTY WILL LIKELY NOT DIP AS LOW AS
OTHER AREAS, BUT LOWS OF 30-32 DEGREES ARE PROBABLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE PLAINS HAVE ALREADY SEEN A HARD FREEZE, AND THEREFORE NO
FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
THE PLAINS. FOR TUESDAY, EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN AND DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SEASONAL AFTERNOON HIGHS, IN THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND
60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
NICE CALM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A WARM TROUGH/SMALL CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IN
THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
THE SYSTEM IS WARM, SO MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER BEING
POSSIBLE DURING THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY, STRONGER ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND COOLER AIR ALONG WITH PRECIP OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE MTNS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER AIR IS LIKELY HEADING TOWARD OUR AREA
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. \/HODANISH
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 15 KTS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ083.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ087-088-
094-099.
UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
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