913
FXUS65 KPUB 220908
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
- A PACIFIC LOW COMING IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOW, DEPENDING ON
ELEVATION, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
INCREASING WINDS LIKELY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT INCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOUR AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN, THOUGH WESTERN
AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE
EVENING.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS MID AND HIGH
BASED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS DAWN AS WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDES THE BEST
OROGRAPHICS. MEANWHILE, LEE TROUGHING ALONG WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
BASED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE MILDER SIDE WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WITH GENERALLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY. -KT
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
MODELS BRING OUR INCOMING PACIFIC LOW TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME AHEAD OF IT, WHICH WILL HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ON OUR
PLAINS THROUGH EARLIER PORTIONS OF THE DAY. THAT SAID, SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
FROM EARLY MORNING ONWARDS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO SIT AROUND
10,000 TO 11,000 FEET OR SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS, SANGRES, AND LA GARITAS, AND
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PIKES PEAK
WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE AND UP-GLIDING LOOK TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON
THE PLAINS, HELPING TO SPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND HOW LONG IT
TAKES TO OVERCOME THE RESIDENT DRY AIR WE CURRENTLY HAVE OVER
THE REGION, BUT MOST RECENT FORECAST POINTS TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MOST MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND
PLAINS LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER CLOSED LOW WITH A
BIT MORE SOUTHERN TRACK, WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM RIGHT OVERHEAD
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT
APPROACHES, BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY END
UP BEING IN THE DRY SLOT BY THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THE FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TOWARDS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 HAVING BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST, WITH MOST AREAS LOOKING DRY BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WE'LL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO STAY IN THE 50S FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION, AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE ON THE
PLAINS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE TRANSITIONAL AS THE DEPARTING LOW EXITS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, AND AN INCOMING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM OUR NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S, CLEAR SKIES, DRY WEATHER, AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS. BY SUNDAY OUR
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES, BUT AT THIS
TIME THEY LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED BY COLORADO STANDARDS,
AT LEAST ON THE PLAINS. GUSTS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 30 MPH OR SO AT THE
MOST, THOUGH THAT NUMBER COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MEAN INCREASING DOWNSLOPING, WHICH WILL IN
TURN MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR OUR SUNDAY. CHANCES
FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO BE LIGHT AND FOCUSED ON OUR HIGHEST PEAKS.
MONDAY ONWARDS..
THE MOST FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT FOR POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS LINES UP
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME, WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING PAST US THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. IF THIS
FORECAST PANS OUT, THAT WOULD LEAVE US WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG OUR NORTHERNMOST AREAS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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